Who's In the Race

Republican Sydney Gruters faces Democrat Kelly Kirschner and independent Mark Davis in the November 3 general election in Florida's 16th District. Florida's 2026 U.S. House elections also run on a new congressional map signed into law May 4. ​

The seat is open because Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL) announced his retirement in January and will not seek re-election.

Gruters worked for Congressmen Vern Buchanan and Greg Steube, including as Steube's district director, and later served as Vice President of Advancement and Executive Director of the New College Foundation before launching her campaign. She won the Aug. 18 Republican primary with about 63% of the vote over runner-up Eddie Speir, who received about 21%.

Kirschner served as Sarasota city commissioner from 2007 to 2011 and as mayor in 2010 and 2011, and later co-founded UnidosNow and served as vice president and dean of executive and continuing education at Eckerd College. He won the Aug. 18 Democratic primary with about 43% of the vote over runner-up Tamika Lyles, who received about 20%.

Davis served eight years in the U.S. Air Force supporting aerial-refueling operations, then spent about 16 years in corporate America before becoming a small-business owner in the insurance industry.

What They Stand For

Gruters has proposed cutting taxes and fighting rising costs so families can afford gas, groceries and other essentials, according to her campaign website. She's also supported:

  • Working with federal immigration authorities to secure the border and protect families from violent criminals entering the country illegally,
  • Preventing large investors from buying starter homes, according to WSLR;
  • Voter ID requirements, calling them "common sense," according to WUSF; and
  • Requiring data centers to pay their own energy and water costs rather than passing them to consumers, with local communities deciding whether to host them, according to WUSF.

Kirschner has proposed a national catastrophic-insurance backstop to reduce property insurance premiums, calling lower living costs his first priority, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • Restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies and reversing Medicare and Medicaid cuts to protect people with pre-existing conditions,
  • Banning offshore drilling and enforcing the Clean Water Act to protect the Gulf Coast,
  • Closing tax loopholes for billionaires and using the savings to help pay down the national debt; and
  • Holding AI companies liable for harms and addressing the future of work as artificial intelligence advances, according to WUSF.

Davis, the independent, has supported Medicare for All, saying "Americans shouldn't lose healthcare because they lose a job," a federal minimum wage of at least $20 an hour, replacing ICE with a reformed immigration agency, and banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks, according to the Lakewood Ranch Beacon.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Likely Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Likely Republican as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Gruters, an 83% chance of winning as of Oct. 15, while Democrats, whose nominee is Kirschner, held a 17% probability.

The district has backed Republicans in each of the past two cycles: Buchanan won with 62.1% of the vote in 2022 and 59.5% in 2024, though his vote share fell about 2.7 percentage points between those two elections. Republicans won 20 of Florida's 28 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, holding a consistent statewide advantage. Donald Trump carried Florida in the 2024 presidential election with about 56% of the vote.

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