Florida's 19th District Primary

Republicans will compete in a crowded Aug. 18 primary for the right to represent southwest Florida in Congress after Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) opted to run for governor rather than seek reelection. Ten Republicans qualified for the primary, while three Democrats will hold their own contest the same day. The general election follows Nov. 3.

Florida runs a traditional partisan primary: Republican and Democratic voters cast ballots in separate party contests, with the candidate receiving the most votes in each advancing to the general election. There is no runoff, top-two mechanism or ranked-choice component.

Florida's 19th Congressional District covers southwest Florida along the Gulf Coast, including Cape Coral and Naples. Donalds has represented the district since 2021, but his gubernatorial campaign leaves the congressional seat open. Major election forecasters nevertheless continue to rate the district Solid Republican.

The Candidates

Republican Primary

Madison Cawthorn is a former U.S. representative who represented North Carolina's 11th Congressional District from 2021 to 2023. He entered Congress at age 25 and lost the Republican primary for reelection in 2022 before later moving to Florida.

Jim Oberweis is a former Illinois state senator and former chair of Oberweis Dairy who also founded Oberweis Asset Management. Now living in Bonita Springs, Oberweis has poured millions of dollars of his own money into his campaign, giving him the largest financial operation in the primary.

Jim Schwartzel is a Southwest Florida media executive and president of Fort Myers-based Sun Broadcasting. A Stetson University graduate and longtime business owner in the region, Schwartzel has also provided substantial personal financing to his campaign.

Chris Collins represented western New York in Congress before resigning in 2019 after pleading guilty to conspiring to commit securities fraud and making false statements. President Donald Trump pardoned Collins in December 2020. Collins has emphasized that he was the first sitting member of Congress to endorse Trump for president in 2016.

Catalina Lauf served as an adviser at the U.S. Department of Commerce during the first Trump administration and previously ran for Congress in Illinois. She competed in the Republican primary for Illinois' 14th Congressional District in 2020 and was the Republican nominee in Illinois' 11th District in 2022.

Ola Hawatmeh is a business owner, fashion designer and former congressional staffer who previously ran for Congress in New York's 19th Congressional District in 2020.

Greg "Tex" Bukowski, Mike Pedersen, Linda J. Sawyer and John Strand also qualified for the Republican primary.

Democratic Primary

Victor Arias, Robert M. Neeld and Howard Sapp qualified for the Democratic primary. Sapp has previously run for the seat and reported more than $52,000 in campaign receipts through June 30. Neeld has a history of running for the southwest Florida congressional seat, including as the Democratic nominee in 2004.

The Money Behind the Race

Oberweis leads the field in campaign receipts, driven overwhelmingly by his own money. Oberweis for Congress reported $5.32 million in total receipts through June 30, according to the Federal Election Commission. Oberweis loaned his campaign $4.9 million, while the campaign received approximately $305,658 from individual contributors. His campaign had spent $2.71 million and reported $2.61 million in cash on hand.

Collins reported approximately $2.61 million in total receipts through June 30, including substantial candidate financing. His campaign spent approximately $1.1 million and reported $1.51 million in cash on hand. The campaign also reported $2.6 million in debt.

Schwartzel reported $1.95 million in receipts through June 30. His campaign received approximately $932,000 from individual contributors and previously reported a $1 million candidate loan. Schwartzel entered the summer with substantial cash available for the final stretch of the primary.

Lauf reported $1.48 million in receipts through June 30, including approximately $1.39 million in contributions. Individual donors accounted for approximately $1.39 million of her receipts. Her campaign had spent $931,578 through the end of June.

Cawthorn reported $861,654 in receipts, but most of his campaign financing came from the candidate himself. Cawthorn loaned his campaign $800,000, while his campaign reported just $47,732 in individual contributions. It had spent $522,535 through June 30.

Hawatmeh reported $387,998 in receipts through June 30, including approximately $140,883 from individual contributors and $124,000 in candidate loans. Her campaign had spent $223,354.

Strand reported $122,888 in receipts, including approximately $99,908 from individual contributors and $19,480 in candidate loans. His campaign spent $107,949 through June 30.

Pedersen reported $70,548 in receipts through June 30, including $60,548 in individual contributions and a $10,000 candidate loan. His campaign spent $58,746.

Sawyer established an FEC-authorized campaign committee, but her committee reported only $52 in cash on hand at the end of June.

On the Democratic side, Sapp reported $52,432 in receipts through June 30, including $36,580 in individual contributions and $15,700 in candidate contributions. His campaign reported $53,115 in spending.

Arias reported at least $22,813 in receipts through March 31, including a $20,000 candidate loan. Comparable current FEC financial information was not available for every candidate in the field.

Outside groups have also entered the Republican primary in the closing weeks. The Club for Growth launched an approximately $1.1 million advertising campaign opposing Collins in late July. The effort included broadcast, cable, satellite and streaming advertising aimed at preventing the former New York congressman from winning the nomination.

Ratings vs. Odds

The major election forecasters agree that Republicans are heavily favored to retain Florida's 19th Congressional District despite Donalds' decision to leave the seat. The Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican. Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections also place the district in their Solid Republican categories.

Prediction markets point in the same direction. As of Aug. 7, Kalshi traders gave Republicans a 91.7% probability of winning the Nov. 3 general election, compared with 8.3% for Democrats. The market had recorded $1,096 in trading volume.

The ratings and prediction market address the November general election rather than the crowded Republican primary. Whoever emerges from the Aug. 18 Republican contest will enter the general election as the clear favorite to keep the open seat in Republican hands.

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