Who's In the Race

Republican Jim Schwartzel faces Democrat Victor Arias in the Nov. 3 general election in Florida's 19th District. The seat is held by Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), who left to run for Florida governor, according to AP News. ​

Schwartzel is a Southwest Florida native and a businessman who describes himself as not a career politician. He won the Republican primary with about 29 percent of the vote over runner-up Catalina Lauf, who took about 22 percent.

Arias is an attorney who has practiced for more than 35 years as the owner and managing attorney of Arias Law Firm, representing working families in personal injury and workers' compensation matters. He won the Democratic primary with about 46 percent of the vote over runner-up Howard Sapp, who received about 40 percent. Haskin, an independent, manages his family's coffee shop business and describes himself as 26 years old and raised in a lower-middle-class family.

What They Stand For

Schwartzel has proposed protecting Southwest Florida's water quality, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • An "America First" approach and backing for President Donald Trump,
  • Congressional term limits,
  • Strengthening the economy and creating jobs; and
  • Protecting Southwest Florida's environment.

Arias says he wants to work across the aisle on infrastructure funding for roads, bridges, and broadband, as well as hurricane preparedness, and his campaign says he supports expanding healthcare access and protecting Medicare and Medicaid from benefit cuts.

The Money Behind the Race

Federal Election Commission filings show Schwartzel raised about $2.1 million through July 29 and had about $182,000 in the bank. His campaign carried about $1.05 million in debt, roughly half of his total receipts. Arias raised about $58,000 through Sept. 30 and had about $19,000 cash on hand, according to FEC filings.

Outside groups have spent nearly $4 million in the race as of Oct. 13, all of it tied to Republican candidates. The largest spender was Protect Freedom Political Action Committee, which spent about $2.2 million in support of a candidate. Win It Back PAC spent about $1.3 million opposing Chris Collins, another primary candidate.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9. Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11. Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2.

Kalshi traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Schwartzel, a 94.21 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13; Democrats, whose nominee is Arias, stood at 5.79 percent.

The district has leaned heavily Republican: Byron Donalds won it with about 68 percent in 2022 and about 66 percent in 2024. Republicans held 20 of Florida's 28 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Democrats holding the remaining eight. Donald Trump carried Florida in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote.

Florida's voter registration deadline for this race was Monday, Oct. 5. The deadline to apply for a mail ballot was Thursday, Oct. 22, by 5 p.m. Early voting in Collier County runs Thursday, Oct. 22, through Saturday, Oct. 31, from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. Election Day polls are open Tuesday, Nov. 3, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time.

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