Who's In the Race

Rep. Jimmy Patronis (R-FL) faces Democrat Gay Valimont and independent Tyler L. Davis in the Nov. 3 general election in Florida's 1st District. ​

Patronis is the incumbent representative for the district, having previously served as Florida's chief financial officer and state fire marshal, and as a member of the Florida Public Service Commission. He won the Republican primary on Aug. 18, receiving 62,965 votes; runner-up John Frankman took about 20 percent of the vote.

Valimont is a Pensacola-based gun-violence-prevention advocate and grassroots organizer, and her campaign describes her as a mother and an advocate for public safety. She ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Davis is a first-time candidate who is raising a family in the district.

What They Stand For

Patronis has proposed giving servicemembers more flexibility with their education benefits through the GI Bill Transferability Act, according to his official House website. He's also supported:

  • Easing professional licensing barriers for veterans and military spouses through the Veteran and Spouse Licensing Flexibility Act of 2025;
  • Funding for military construction and veterans' services through the Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act of 2026; and
  • Veterans' issues broadly, as highlighted across his official House website.

Valimont has proposed lowering insurance costs for Northwest Florida families, according to her campaign website. She's also supported:

  • Expanding access to healthcare;
  • a full-service VA hospital in the region, which she says is needed; and
  • Gun-violence prevention and public safety as central campaign priorities.

According to her campaign website, Davis is running on a platform that includes:

  • Education that leads to real opportunity, not just credentials
  • Jobs and workforce development that help people earn more and stay rooted in their communities
  • Infrastructure built for the future, including broadband, energy resilience, and water protection
  • Sustainable innovation that respects the Panhandle’s environment and economy
  • Open, ongoing dialogue that leads to measurable action, not empty forums

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Patronis, a 94.92 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13; Democrats, whose nominee is Valimont, stood at 5.08 percent.

The district has voted heavily Republican in recent cycles: Matt Gaetz won it with about 68 percent in 2022 and about 66 percent in 2024. Statewide, Republicans won 20 of Florida's 28 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Democrats winning the remaining eight. Donald Trump carried Florida in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote.

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