Who's In the Race

Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL) faces Democrat Nicole Locklin in the Nov. 3 general election in Florida's 26th Congressional District. Florida enacted a new congressional map for 2026 that changes district boundaries statewide, according to Florida Politics. ​

Both primaries scheduled for Aug. 18 were canceled; Diaz-Balart and Locklin each advanced without a primary contest, according to Ballotpedia.

Diaz-Balart has represented Florida's 26th District in the U.S. House since 2003, previously serving in both chambers of the Florida Legislature. He is Vice Chair of the House Appropriations Committee and chairs its Subcommittee on National Security, Department of State, and Related Programs.

Locklin is a practicing attorney who earned her law degree from Santa Clara University School of Law in 2015 and graduated from the University of Oklahoma in 2009.

What They Stand For

Diaz-Balart has called for Congress to follow "the principles of fiscal discipline" and reduce wasteful and duplicative federal programs, according to his official House website. He's also supported:

  • Defense and national security as a federal priority,
  • Lowering costs for Americans; and
  • A strong national defense, as listed on his campaign website.

Locklin has proposed making South Florida more affordable by addressing housing and insurance costs, according to her campaign website. She has also supported:

  • Protecting Social Security and Medicare,
  • Expanding the earned income tax credit and introducing rent control in cities such as Miami, according to the Miami Herald; and
  • Greater government regulation of artificial intelligence, according to CBS News Miami.

The Money Behind the Race

Through July 29, Diaz-Balart had raised about $2.1 million and had about $2.5 million in cash on hand, while Locklin had raised about $348,000 and had about $199,000 on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

As of July 29, Diaz-Balart reported $2.54 million in cash on hand, more than the $2.06 million in total receipts. Locklin reported $250,000 in debt and $347,681 in total receipts as of July 29.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Diaz-Balart, an 88.24% chance of winning as of Oct. 14; Democrats, whose nominee is Locklin, stood at 11.76%.

Diaz-Balart carried the district with about 71% of the vote in both 2022 and 2024. Republicans won 20 of Florida's 28 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Democrats winning the remaining eight. Donald Trump carried Florida in the 2024 presidential election with about 56% of the vote.

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