Florida's 28th District Primary

Republican incumbent Carlos Giménez and Democrat Phil Ehr are set to face each other in Florida's 28th Congressional District general election Nov. 3 after both emerged without competitive Aug. 18 primaries. Independent candidate Eddy Rojas also qualified for the general election.

Every major forecaster rates the South Florida seat Solid Republican. Florida's 28th Congressional District covers southern Miami-Dade County and the Florida Keys. The district's boundaries were left unchanged under Florida's new congressional map enacted this year.

Giménez has represented the area in Congress since 2021, when he succeeded Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell after defeating her in the 2020 election. He initially represented the 26th District before redistricting renumbered the seat as the 28th.

The Candidates

Republican Primary

Giménez, 71, was born in Cuba and came to the United States as a child. He spent decades as a Miami firefighter, rising to fire chief, before winning election as Miami-Dade County mayor in 2011 and serving until his 2020 congressional victory.

In Congress, he sits on the House Armed Services Committee and the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party and chairs the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security. His legislative record centers on homeland security, transportation and international affairs; among his sponsored bills is the DHS Vehicular Terrorism Prevention and Mitigation Act of 2025.

Democratic Primary

Phil Ehr is a retired U.S. Navy commander and the Democratic nominee. Ehr flew electronic reconnaissance missions during the Cold War, provided combat support during Operation Desert Storm and served during Operation Allied Force. He was also the Democratic nominee against Giménez in the 28th District in 2024. Ehr's campaign has emphasized veterans' issues, including establishing a full Department of Veterans Affairs hospital or major VA medical facility in South Dade.

The Money Behind the Race

Giménez enters the general election with the larger campaign fundraising operation. His principal campaign committee reported $567,482.18 in total receipts from Jan. 1, 2025, through June 30, 2026, according to Federal Election Commission records. Of that amount, $447,794.80 came from contributions, including $190,544.80 from individuals and $257,250 from other political committees. His campaign also received $118,910.38 in transfers from other authorized committees.

Giménez's campaign entered July with $699,516.70 in cash on hand and reported no outstanding campaign debt.

Ehr's authorized campaign committees reported $424,189.36 in total receipts through June 30. His FEC candidate summary shows $91,008.51 in contributions, including $80,808.51 from individuals. Ehr's committees reported $454,610.27 in cash on hand and $644,083.63 in debts and loans owed by the committees.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all rate Florida's 28th Congressional District Solid Republican, producing a unanimous consensus that Giménez is strongly favored to retain the seat.

The district's boundaries were not changed under Florida's new 2026 congressional map, meaning the mid-cycle redistricting that substantially altered several other Florida House districts did not reshape the Giménez-Ehr contest.

Prediction markets point in the same direction. Kalshi favors Republicans to win the seat in November. With neither major party facing a competitive Aug. 18 primary, the race is already effectively set for November: Giménez will seek another term against Ehr, with independent candidate Eddy Rojas also qualified for the general election.

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