Florida's 3rd District Primary

Four Democrats compete Aug. 18 for the right to challenge Republican incumbent Kat Cammack in Florida's 3rd Congressional District primary in 2026, while Cammack herself runs unopposed on her side of the ballot. The winner of the Democratic contest will face long odds in November: every major forecaster rates the seat Solid Republican, and prediction markets price a Republican win at more than nine-to-one.

State, District Primary

Florida's 3rd Congressional District covers north-central Florida, a stretch of the state anchored by Gainesville and Alachua County and extending into neighboring rural counties. The district elects a single member to the U.S. House.

Florida uses a traditional partisan primary system for congressional races. Registered Republicans and Democrats vote in separate contests on Aug. 18, 2026, and each party's top vote-getter advances to the general election Nov. 3. There is no runoff and no ranked-choice component. The November ballot will include candidates from multiple parties, with Independent, Libertarian, and No Party Affiliation candidates joining the two major-party nominees among the 12 candidates slated for the general election.

This is not an open seat. Cammack has held the seat since January 2021 and faces no Republican challenger, making her primary a formality. The competitive action is entirely on the Democratic side, where four candidates are contesting the nomination.

No prior general election vote totals are included in the available data for this race. The district's partisan lean, however, is unambiguous across every major independent forecaster.

The Candidates

Republicans

Rep. Kat Cammack has represented the district since 2021 and runs without opposition in the Republican primary. In the 119th Congress, she sits on the House Committee on Agriculture and the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, where her subcommittee assignments span Communications and Technology, Health, and Commerce, Manufacturing, and Trade. Her legislative activity in the current Congress includes sponsoring the Medicaid Financing Clarification Act of 2026 and the Bereaved Parents Rights Act, and she secured 10 amendments in the fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act. Her tenure has focused on border security, rural infrastructure, and emergency preparedness.

Democrats

Troy Albers brings a military background that spans the U.S. Navy, the Florida National Guard, and the U.S. Army. After leaving the service he became a farmer in North Florida, a combination he has used to position himself as a working-class outsider in the race. His campaign has leaned on his roots in the district and his experience across both military and agricultural life.

Seth Harp is a teacher and talk show host who built a career in radio as a program director, host, and station manager. He is running on a platform centered on lowering costs for families and has framed his campaign explicitly as a vehicle for holding Cammack accountable.

Tom Wells is the most experienced campaigner in the Democratic field, having run for this seat in 2020, 2022, and 2024. He describes himself as a progressive Democrat and has centered his campaign on children and their futures. His repeated runs reflect a sustained commitment to contesting the district despite its Republican lean.

George Hubac describes himself as a veteran, teacher, entrepreneur, and caregiver. His campaign is built around an economic argument: that the district's economy is "breaking down" and that he has a concrete plan to address it.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending in the race has been minimal. A single committee, Latinos for Conservative Values, accounts for all reported independent expenditure activity, having spent $30,870 in support of Cammack. No outside money has been directed against any candidate in the race, and no communication costs have been reported. The FEC filing shows the full $30,870 flowing to support the Republican incumbent, with nothing spent on the Democratic side. Outside spending data covers periodic reports through July 1, 2026, and 24/48-hour notices through Aug. 10.

On the direct fundraising side, the top individual donor in the race is Elise Pickering at $11,000. Thirteen political action committees each contributed $10,000:

  • American College of Radiology Association PAC
  • American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC
  • American Society of Plastic Surgeons Plasty PAC
  • Associated Builders and Contractors, Inc. PAC
  • Charter Communications Inc. PAC
  • GuideWell Mutual Holding Corporation PAC
  • National Cattlemen's Beef Association PAC
  • Space Exploration Technologies Corp. PAC
  • United States Sugar Corporation Employee Stock Ownership Plan PAC
  • Nutrien Ag Solutions Employee Citizenship Fund PAC
  • United States Peanut PAC
  • Woodpack Global PAC
  • Mississippi Republican Party

The pattern reflects heavy support from business and trade association PACs across healthcare, agriculture, energy, and telecommunications, consistent with Cammack's committee assignments on Agriculture and Energy and Commerce. Note that the contributor data is approximate and covers only a portion of total filings; additional donors not captured in this set have also contributed to the race.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report rated the seat Solid Republican as of July 16. Sabato's Crystal Ball matched that rating as of July 30. Inside Elections held the same Solid Republican designation as of Aug. 6. The consensus rating, also Solid Republican as of Aug. 6, reflects unanimous agreement across all three organizations.

Prediction markets align with the forecasters. On Kalshi, as of Aug. 7, Republicans carried a 93.4 percent win probability against 6.6 percent for Democrats, on $4,566 in trading volume. The low volume reflects the general certainty about the outcome rather than any ambiguity in the race.

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