Who's In the Race

Rep. Aaron Bean (R-FL) faces Democrat Lashonda J Holloway and independent Todd Schaefer in the November 3 general election in Florida's 4th District. ​

Bean has represented the district since 2023, previously serving in the Florida Senate from 2012 to 2022 and the Florida House from 2000 to 2008; he also served as a Fernandina Beach city commissioner and mayor and as a community bank president.

Holloway is a mediator and arbitrator and managing partner of the firm Holloway & Young; she earned a law degree from the University of Florida, worked on Capitol Hill for Congresswoman Carrie Meek, and later served as Director of Community Lending and Development in banking. Holloway won the Aug. 18 Democratic primary with about 57% of the vote, beating runner-up Michael Kirwan, who received about 30%.

Schaefer is a retired Navy veteran.

What They Stand For

Bean has proposed expanding Health Savings Accounts and allowing people to buy insurance across state lines to make care more personal and affordable, according to his official House website. He's also supported:

  • Restoring fiscal responsibility and reducing wasteful government spending,
  • A strong military and "peace through strength" defense posture,
  • Keeping taxes low and reducing overregulation to help small businesses; and
  • School choice and parental control over education.

Holloway has proposed lowering premiums and prescription costs and expanding Medicare coverage as a basic right, according to her campaign website. She's also supported:

  • Cutting red tape for small businesses and expanding their access to capital,
  • Investment in clean energy and domestic supply chains to stabilize energy prices,
  • Fully funding VA healthcare and expanding veterans' mental-health and housing services; and
  • Government accountability to the public rather than special interests.

Schaefer, a retired Navy servicemember, has proposed an American Prosperity Card Act to change how money is created, arguing the system should benefit ordinary people rather than banks, according to his campaign website; he has also supported closing tax loopholes used by institutional housing investors and a national public health-insurance option.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Republican" as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball gave it the same rating as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections also called it "Solid Republican" as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Bean, an 84.31% chance of winning as of Oct. 15; Democrats, whose nominee is Holloway, stood at 15.69%.

Bean carried the district with about 60% in 2022 and about 57% in 2024, a drop of about three percentage points even as Donald Trump carried Florida with about 56% in the 2024 presidential race. Republicans won 20 of Florida's 28 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Democrats taking the remaining eight each cycle. Trump won Florida's presidential electors in 2024 with about 56% of the vote.

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