Florida's 6th District Primary

Seven Republicans and seven Democrats will face off in separate primaries on Aug. 18, with the winner of the GOP contest almost certain to represent Florida's 6th Congressional District in Washington for the next two years. Incumbent Randy Fine is seeking his first full term after winning a 2025 special election, and he enters the race as both the frontrunner and the primary target of a crowded challenger field. The general election follows Nov. 3.

Florida runs a traditional partisan primary: registered voters participate in their own party's contest, and the top vote-getter in each advances outright. There is no runoff, no ranked-choice component, and no top-two mechanism.

The district spans a stretch of Florida's northeast coast, taking in southern St. Johns County, Putnam and Flagler counties, and portions of eastern Marion and northern Volusia counties, including the Daytona Beach area. No prior general election results for this configuration are available in the underlying data, but the district's partisan character is not in dispute. Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the seat Solid Republican, and prediction markets put the Republican nominee's odds of winning the general election at better than 93%.

Republican Primary

Randy Fine was sworn in April 2, 2025, after winning the special election triggered when Michael Waltz left the House to serve as National Security Advisor. A former McKinsey consultant and gambling industry executive, Fine served in the Florida House from 2016 to 2024 and briefly in the Florida Senate before his congressional run. He sits on the House Committee on Education and Workforce, including its subcommittees on Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions and on Higher Education and Workforce Development. Several rivals have questioned whether he actually lives within the district's boundaries, a line of attack that has followed him throughout the primary campaign.

Dan Bilzerian, a millionaire social media personality, filed to challenge Fine in April 2026. His entry drew national media attention and brought self-funding potential to the race. He has been sharply critical of Fine in public statements. His candidacy has also drawn scrutiny over past controversies.

Charles Gambaro is a retired U.S. Army general officer who has served on the Palm Coast City Council since being appointed in October 2024. He was among the first to challenge Fine's residency claims publicly and has positioned himself as a locally rooted alternative to the incumbent.

Ernie Audino is a retired Army brigadier general who served as district director for the 6th Congressional District under Rep. Waltz before entering the race. His familiarity with the district and military record have made him a notable presence in the field.

Also running in the Republican primary: Aaron Baker, Alexandra Van Cleef, and Manuel Asensio.

Democratic Primary

James Stockton is the senior pastor of Greater New Hope Church in Ocala and a former NAACP president. He was the Democratic nominee for this seat in 2024, giving him more campaign experience in the district than any other Democrat in the field.

Eric Yonce is a realtor running in the Democratic primary. Purva Bangdiwala is a pharmacy technician. Mark Davis is a podcast host.

Also running on the Democratic side: Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera, Robert Cooper, and Steve Morgan.

Jennifer Jenkins, a former Brevard County School Board member who initially filed for this race, withdrew from the CD-6 contest and is now running in Florida's 8th Congressional District.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have directed $3,728,150 in confirmed independent expenditures into this race, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data current through Aug. 10. An additional $296,116 in pending notices brings the potential total to $4,024,266.

Conservative Fighter PAC leads all outside spenders at $1,709,021. Defend American Jobs is close behind at $1,673,736. Together, those two groups account for roughly 90% of all confirmed outside spending in the race.

Other groups reporting confirmed expenditures include America PAC ($76,889), Special Operations for America ($60,000), Hunter Nation Action Inc. ($49,672), Center for Voter Information ($42,229), The Conservative Caucus DBA Americans for Constitutional Liberty ($39,929), Freedom's Defense Fund ($20,000), and People for Integrity in Government ($20,000).

Every dollar of confirmed outside spending targets Fine. Of the $3,728,150 spent in connection with the incumbent, $3,677,057 supports his candidacy and $51,093 opposes it. Challenger Dan Bilzerian has no confirmed outside spending for or against him, though The Front Line Action has filed $286,066 in pending notices associated with his race. Those figures have not yet been restated in a formal periodic filing.

The FEC data also shows 20 top contributors to candidates in the race. Rob Cooper for Congress leads among itemized contributors at $15,200, followed by Peter Forman at $10,500, George Archos at $10,410, and several donors at $10,000 each, including Charles Bachtell, Joseph Lusardi, Pamela Pratt, Kim Rivers, and the Buckeye Liberty Political Action Committee. The United States Sugar Corporation Employee Stock Ownership Plan Political Action Committee also reported $10,000 in contributions. These figures represent a partial picture of total donor activity; the underlying data notes that a large number of additional contribution records fall outside the returned set.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report rated the seat Solid Republican on July 16. Sabato's Crystal Ball followed with the same rating on July 30. Inside Elections matched both on Aug. 6. The consensus rating, also Solid Republican as of Aug. 6, reflects unanimous agreement across all three major forecasters.

Prediction markets align with that assessment. Kalshi gave Republicans a 94% probability of winning the general election as of Aug. 7, with Democrats at 6%. The market had traded 581 contracts as of that date. Because the Republican nominee will almost certainly win the general election, the Aug. 18 GOP primary is, in practical terms, the decisive contest for this seat.

---

Spot something wrong? Report an issue with this article