Who's In The Race

Florida's new congressional map moved Rep. Darren Soto (D-FL) into a far redder 9th District, and voters there have until Monday, Oct. 5, to register for a race that could flip the seat. The redrawn district adds Okeechobee, Glades, Highlands and Indian River counties to Osceola and parts of Orange and Polk, stretching nearly twice as far south as before.

President Donald Trump would have carried the new district by about 18 points in 2024, according to Inside Elections. Soto, in Congress since 2017, called the race "tough, but winnable" when he decided to run, Central Florida Public Media reported. He faces Republican Dan Green of Vero Beach, a Navy Reserve veteran and former deputy assistant secretary of defense under Trump, according to the Florida Phoenix.

Soto ran unopposed in the Aug. 18 Democratic primary. Green won a seven-way Republican primary with about 25% of the vote, narrowly ahead of cattle farmer Ben Butler.

What They Stand For

Soto backs preserving and expanding the Affordable Care Act and opposes Medicaid cuts. He supports immigration reform with a path to citizenship for Dreamers, Temporary Protected Status holders and farmworkers. His campaign also stresses clean energy and preparing for rising seas and stronger hurricanes.

Green says rising homeowners insurance rates and overdevelopment are pushing longtime Floridians out, and he wants to rein in both. He supports a well-funded military, border enforcement and working with Trump on his agenda. He also opposes new gun restrictions and supports eliminating the federal Department of Education, according to Smarter.vote.

The Money Behind The Race

Soto reported raising about $2.2 million from Jan. 1, 2025, through July 29, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Nearly two-thirds came from political committees, and he had about $1.2 million in the bank.

Green reported raising about $1.3 million from April 1 through July 29, including $1.14 million he loaned his own campaign. He had about $363,000 left after a costly primary.

Outside groups had reported about $27,000 in spending through Sept. 21, almost all of it from Patriotic Fund, Inc., backing Republicans.

Race Outlook: Ratings And Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Republican as of Sept. 25, and Inside Elections gave it the same rating as of Sept. 17. Sabato's Crystal Ball also calls it Likely Republican as of Sept. 22. On Kalshi, traders favored Green at about 70% as of 10:50 a.m. ET Thursday, Oct. 1.

Soto won the old version of the seat with about 55% of the vote in 2024 and about 54% in 2022. The new lines take out much of that Democratic base, cutting the district's Hispanic share from 54% to 41%, Inside Elections reported.

Requests for mail ballots are due by 5 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 22. Early voting runs at least from Saturday, Oct. 24, through Saturday, Oct. 31, ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

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