Florida's 9th District Primary

Seven Republicans compete today, Aug. 18, to face one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents in Florida, as Rep. Darren Soto runs unopposed in his party's primary for a seat every major forecaster rates "Likely Republican."

Florida's 9th Congressional District covers a swath of central Florida anchored in the Orlando metropolitan area, drawing from parts of Orange and Osceola counties. The region has grown rapidly in recent decades and carries a large Latino population, factors that once made it reliably Democratic territory. The district sends one member to the U.S. House.

Florida runs a traditional partisan primary: registered Democrats and Republicans vote on separate ballots the same day, with each party's top vote-getter advancing to a unified general election. There is no runoff threshold and no ranked-choice component. Both primaries are set for Aug. 18, with the general election to follow Nov. 3.

Soto faces no Democratic opposition, giving him a clear path to his party's nomination. The competitive action is entirely on the Republican side, where seven candidates are vying for the chance to challenge him in November.

The Candidates

Darren Soto (D, incumbent)

Soto has held the seat since 2017, becoming the first Puerto Rican-American elected to Congress from Florida. A former attorney and state legislator, he serves on the House Energy and Commerce Committee in the 119th Congress. His legislative record centers on healthcare access, environmental protection, and Puerto Rico policy, including sponsoring the Puerto Rico Affordable Care Act of 2025 and championing disaster relief for the island following Hurricane Maria. He enters the general election campaign with no primary fight to absorb resources, but faces a district that forecasters now tilt toward his opponents.

Thomas Chalifoux (R)

A retired U.S. Army colonel and businessman running in the district for the second time, Chalifoux leads the Republican field in campaign spending by a wide margin, having committed more than $3 million of his own money to the race. His campaign is focused on economic affordability and alignment with the national Republican agenda.

Dan Green (R)

A Navy Reserve officer and 23-year military veteran who was at the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2001, Green also served as a civilian Defense Department official during the Trump administration. He raised $1 million in his first two weeks as a candidate and has assembled an endorsement coalition that includes Rep. Jim Jordan, veterans groups, and Florida law enforcement organizations. His campaign platform centers on a "Make America Affordable Again" message.

Jorge Martinez (R)

A Cuban-born certified public accountant who owns his own firm in Lake Nona, Martinez has self-funded roughly $500,000 of his nearly $800,000 campaign total, positioning himself as a business-oriented outsider in the race.

Also running (Republican): Ben Butler, Marcus Carter, Steve Rance, Justin Story, and Jorge Malavet round out the Republican field.

The Money Behind the Race

All candidates in the race combined have raised $8,133,291, according to FEC filings. The bulk of that money sits inside the campaigns themselves, where Chalifoux's self-funding has driven the largest individual totals.

Outside spending, by contrast, remains almost entirely on paper. Confirmed independent expenditures through July 1 total just $18, all of it in support of Soto. Two environmental-aligned committees account for that sum: Sierra Club Independent Action spent $10 and GiveGreen United Action spent $8.

The more significant figures are pending. As of Aug. 10, outside groups have filed $130,783 in 24- and 48-hour notices, the rapid-disclosure filings campaigns and committees submit close to an election, which are not yet reflected in periodic FEC reports. Hometown Freedom Action Network leads that pending total with $94,000 directed toward Chalifoux. Reform Government follows with $32,470, also targeting Chalifoux. Patriotic Fund, Inc. has $4,313 pending in support of Green. None of those figures are finalized in periodic reports yet.

The result: confirmed outside spending in the race stands at $18, with $130,783 in pending notices that will be formally restated in the committees' next periodic filings. Every dollar of confirmed outside spending supports the Democrat; every dollar of pending outside spending targets Republican primary candidates.

Among individual contributors, Karen Hale and Robert Hale each gave $24,000, the largest individual contributions in the FEC data for this race. Twenty PACs gave $10,000 each, including the Abbott Laboratories Employee Political Action Committee, the Air Line Pilots Association PAC, the American Federation of Teachers PAC, and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee Political Action Committee, among others. That contributor picture is partial: the underlying data covers 1,198 additional contribution records beyond the top 20 returned, so the full donor landscape is broader than what the available figures show.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate Florida's 9th "Likely Republican," a unanimous consensus as of early August 2026. Cook issued its rating July 16, Sabato followed July 30, and Inside Elections updated to the same label Aug. 6. The consensus rating carries a code of minus-two on the standard scale, placing the seat firmly in Republican-favored territory without yet reaching "Safe Republican."

On Kalshi, the Republican nominee trades at 75 percent probability of winning the general election, with the Democratic candidate at 25 percent. No probability is assigned to other candidates. That market had recorded $28,106 in trading volume as of its Aug. 7 update. The Republican primary on Aug. 18 will determine which of the seven candidates carries those odds into November against Soto.

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