The Race
Rich McCormick's Republican machine rolled into Georgia's 7th U.S. House District primary like a juggernaut. The incumbent hauled in 83,566 votes on May 19, 2026, and cruised to the GOP nomination without breaking a sweat. Meanwhile, Democrats held a messier affair: Casey Norton edged out the May 19 primary field but didn't quite seal the deal, forcing a June 16 runoff that Norton ultimately won. Now it's prediction markets vs polls as these two head toward the general election on November 3, 2026, and here's where things get interesting.
Ratings
The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all sing from the same hymn sheet: this race is rated as Solid Republican as of June 18, 2026. In plain English, that means experts see McCormick's seat as safely in GOP hands. The incumbent has the advantage, the district leans red, and barring a major scandal or surprise, Republicans should hold it.
Prediction Markets
Here's where the bettors weigh in. As of June 29, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket odds give Republicans a 78.85% probability of winning the seat, with Democrats at 21.15%.
Experts vs. Markets
The story here is subtle but real. Expert raters and prediction markets broadly agree, McCormick is the favorite. But the markets are giving Norton and her Democratic challengers a slightly better shot than the expert consensus traditionally allows. Six candidates total are on the general election ballot, which could splinter the anti-Republican vote and help McCormick.
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