Who's In the Race

Democratic incumbent Josh Green is seeking reelection as Hawaii's governor against Republican Gary Cordery in the Nov. 3 general election. The seat is not open, and Democrat Josh Green, the incumbent governor, is running for reelection. ​

Green won his first term in 2022 and now faces a Republican challenger in a state that has voted Democratic in every presidential election for decades. Cordery, his opponent, secured the Republican nomination in a competitive primary field.

Both nominees won their primaries on Aug. 8. Green took the Democratic primary with 89 percent of the vote. Cordery won the Republican primary with 75 percent of the vote.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling

Every major forecaster has placed this race in the same category, and none sees it as competitive.

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic, updated Oct. 28. Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it Solid Democratic, updated Oct. 28. Inside Elections rated the race Solid Democratic, updated Oct. 23. That unanimous agreement across three independent forecasters signals that analysts see little realistic path for Cordery to close the gap before Election Day.

Previous Elections

Hawaii's electoral history helps explain why forecasters are so uniform in their assessment. Democrat Kamala Harris carried Hawaii in the 2024 presidential election with 61 percent of the vote, compared to 37 percent for Republican Donald Trump. That 24-point margin placed Hawaii among the most Democratic states in the country in the last presidential cycle.

In the 2022 governor's race, Green defeated Republican Duke Aiona by 108,788 votes: 261,025 to 152,237. That margin, roughly 41 percent to 29 percent of the total vote, gave Green one of the wider winning margins among gubernatorial races that year. Cordery would need to dramatically outperform every recent Republican candidate in the state to flip the outcome in 2026.

In the 2026 primaries, Democratic turnout reached 169,070 votes, more than five times the Republican primary's 31,389. That five-to-one turnout advantage suggests the Democratic base remains far larger and more engaged than the Republican one, a structural challenge Cordery faces regardless of his individual campaign strength.

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