Who's In the Race

Republican Eric Barlow and Democrat Kenneth Casner face each other in Wyoming's governor's race on November 3, in an open-seat contest because incumbent Republican governor Mark Gordon is not running for reelection. ​

Barlow, a Republican, won the open-seat primary on August 18 and now faces Democrat Kenneth Casner on November 3. Casner is the Democratic nominee challenging him in what is expected to be a heavily Republican-leaning contest.

In the Aug. 18 primary, Barlow won 45 percent of the vote out of 128,402 total votes cast, a margin of 20,081 votes over his nearest rival.

Endorsements

Barlow has drawn support from some of Wyoming's most prominent Republican figures heading into November.

Mark Gordon, a statewide official, endorsed Republican nominee Eric Barlow on Oct. 19.

No heavyweight endorsers (presidents, other executive-branch officials, or major statewide officials) have been reported for Casner.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling

Every major race-rating outlet has placed Wyoming's governor's race in its safest Republican category.

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican, updated Oct. 28. Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it Solid Republican, updated Oct. 28. Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican, updated Oct. 23.

Previous Elections

Wyoming's recent electoral history helps explain why every major outlet rates this race as a lock for Republicans.

In the 2024 presidential election, Wyoming backed Donald Trump with 72 percent of the vote against Kamala Harris's 26 percent, a margin of 46 percentage points.

The 2022 Wyoming governor's race told a similar story: Gordon won the general election with 143,696 votes to Democrat Theresa Livingston's 30,686, a margin of more than 113,000 votes. That works out to roughly 82 percent of the two-party vote for the Republican incumbent.

For Casner to win, he would need to overcome a pattern of Democratic candidates receiving less than one-fifth of the vote in statewide races, a gap that no single election cycle has come close to closing.

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