The Race
Brad Schneider demolished the Democratic field, capturing 56,353 votes to Morgan Coghill's 15,152 in a two-candidate primary. That's 79% of the vote in a district that clearly backs its incumbent. On the Republican side, Carl Lambrecht ran unopposed, a sign of GOP struggles in this turf. The contrast is stark: Democrats energized 71,505 primary voters while Republicans mustered just 18,857.
Ratings
The Cook Political Report consensus is crystal clear: Illinois's 10th is rated as "Solid Democratic." This isn't a toss-up; it's a safe seat for Schneider. Expert forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all agree the fundamentals favor the Democrat.
Prediction Markets
Kalshi and Polymarket odds paint an even starker picture. As of late June 2026, prediction market aggregates show Democrats with a 97.29% probability of victory, leaving Republicans at just 2.71%. When bettors put real money down, they're saying this race is virtually over before it starts.
Experts vs. Markets
The expert ratings and prediction markets both say Schneider is a heavy favorite. The markets, though, push the conviction even higher, flashing near-certainty rather than mere confidence. When Cook Political Report and the betting crowd agree this strongly, the outcome is rarely in doubt.
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