What Happened?

Nearly eight months into a war that has driven up gas prices and that the White House says is about stopping an Iranian nuclear bomb, Congress’ own researchers say it’s still unclear how close Iran is to building one. The Congressional Research Service, Congress’ nonpartisan research arm, updated its report “Iran and Nuclear Weapons Production” on Tuesday, Oct. 13, giving lawmakers a fresh baseline as they weigh the conflict with the Trump administration. ​

The report’s key findings:

  • Weapons program: U.S. intelligence has assessed that Iran halted its weapons program in late 2003, and a 2025 assessment said Iran “is not building a nuclear weapon.”
  • Fuel: The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates Iran still holds about 441 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60%, a short step from weapons grade, but its inspectors haven’t been inside Iran since June 2025.
  • Timeline: Before U.S. strikes in June 2025, U.S. analysts estimated Iran could make enough weapons-grade fuel for one bomb in under a week, though building the weapon itself would take longer.

Why Does It Matter To Me?

The U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, and fuel costs spiked after shipping was shut down in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world’s oil, ABC News reported. President Donald Trump repeatedly set and extended deadlines for a deal from March through May, and a June 17 ceasefire agreement, in which Iran pledged not to develop nuclear weapons, collapsed in early July.

The fighting hasn’t stopped. Attacks on ships near Hormuz hit a wartime high this week, with 24 sailors killed in 106 confirmed incidents since the war began, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.

Both Sides, Now

At a rally in Alaska on Tuesday, Oct. 13, Trump again said he went to war because Iran was “two weeks away from having a nuclear weapon,” the Guardian reported, a claim that conflicts with the 2025 intelligence assessment. Vice President JD Vance pressed Iran on its enriched fuel this month, asking, “If you don’t want a nuclear weapon, then why do you need 60 percent enriched fuel?”

Critics point to the war’s human cost. A United Nations fact-finding mission found “reasonable grounds” to believe a Feb. 28 U.S. strike on an elementary school in Minab, which Iranian officials say killed at least 156 people, including 120 children, was a war crime, CNN reported. The White House said Iran is “the only party in this conflict that has committed war crimes,” and the Pentagon’s own investigation is still open. In Congress, the Senate voted 49 to 50 on Thursday, Sept. 24, against a resolution to end the war, its 14th such vote, with four Republicans voting yes.

What Happens Next?

Talks remain stuck. Vance wants Iran to sharply cut its uranium enrichment, while Trump rejected an Iranian offer to reopen Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. naval blockade and oil sanctions, Al Jazeera reported.

The CRS report notes that lawmakers can require intelligence briefings on whether Iran is moving toward a weapon. Congress returns Monday, Nov. 9.

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