What Happened?

If you follow U.S. policy on Gaza or military aid to Israel, who leads Israel's next government could shift the direction of that policy, because neither major bloc won enough seats in Israel's Oct. 27 elections to govern alone. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) examines the results of Israel's Oct. 27 elections and what they mean for U.S.-Israel relations. ​

Netanyahu's Likud party won 27 of the Knesset's 120 seats; his right-leaning bloc as a whole secured 53 seats. The opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party, won 48 seats, and Arab-led parties took the remaining 19. A majority requires 61 seats, and Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 while the opposition holds 48.

Why Does it Matter to Me?

Which parties hold key ministries in Israel's next government could shape U.S. decisions on arms transfers, security cooperation, and diplomacy in Gaza and the West Bank.

The next government's positions on Palestinian statehood, settlement expansion, and military operations could influence congressional decisions on military aid. Congressional proposals already in play include restricting certain arms transfers to Israel, imposing sanctions related to Israeli settlements, and addressing violence in the West Bank.

Both Sides, Now

The report notes that Israeli military operations since October 2023 have degraded threats from Iran and its regional allies, while causing tens of thousands of civilian casualties, and it highlights possible implications for U.S.-Israel defense cooperation and the annual defense authorization process.

For President Donald Trump and Congress, a coalition that includes parties opposed to territorial concessions could complicate U.S. efforts to advance regional stability and diplomatic normalization between Israel and Arab states.

Concerns about civilian harm have drawn international attention: Reuters reported that an Israeli airstrike on a beachfront café on June 30, 2025, killed 22 people, including women, children, and a journalist. The UN Human Rights Office recorded 798 killings of Palestinians seeking aid between May 27 and July 7, 2025, including 615 near aid distribution sites, according to UN OCHA/UNISPAL.

Congress has not passed legislation restricting arms transfers to Israel, and the CRS report frames the outcome of coalition talks as the key variable for what comes next.

What Happens Next?

Official results are scheduled for publication Nov. 4, after which Israeli President Isaac Herzog has seven days to select a candidate to attempt to form a government. That candidate then has 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to assemble a coalition.

If negotiations fail, Netanyahu's government could remain in a caretaker role until another election, potentially in early 2027.

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