The Race
Incumbent Republican Tracey Mann is running for re-election in Kansas's 1st U.S. House District, where the race is rated as Solid Republican. The Republican primary features just one candidate, while the Democratic primary has two contenders vying for their party's nomination. Come November, voters will choose from seven candidates total on the general election ballot. Primaries are set for August 4, with the general election following on November 3.
Ratings
The midterm race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabata's Crystal Ball all agree: this seat is Solid Republican territory.
Prediction Markets
Betting markets are singing the same tune. As of late June 2026, prediction market odds from Kalshi and Polymarket gave Republicans a 93.97% probability of keeping the seat, with Democrats at just 6.03%.
Experts vs. Markets
All candidates combined have raised just over $1.28 million, modest for a congressional race, another indicator that this isn't shaping up to be a competitive bloodbath.
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