Who's In the Race

Outside groups have spent more than $26 million in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District race, according to the race record, which counts spending through Sept. 30 and notices filed through Oct. 7. Three nominees are on the general-election ballot: Ed Gallrein (Republican), Melissa Strange (Democrat), and Jeremy Todd (Libertarian). ​

Gallrein won the Republican primary with 55 percent of the vote, per the AllCiv race record; Thomas Massie, the district's incumbent, was the runner-up with 45 percent. Gallrein's campaign describes him as a fifth-generation farmer and former Navy SEAL officer.

Strange won the Democratic primary with 72 percent; Jesse Brewer was the runner-up, per the AllCiv race record. Strange's campaign says she was born and raised in Villa Hills and is a lifelong Northern Kentuckian.

Todd is the Libertarian nominee. Todd's campaign says his business experience gave him firsthand insight into challenges facing working families and small businesses.

Ballotpedia reports that Donald Trump carried Kentucky's 4th Congressional District in 2024 with 65.4 percent of the vote to Joe Biden's 32.8 percent.

What They Stand For

Gallrein's campaign says he would cut taxes, reduce regulations, curb federal spending and work to bring good-paying jobs back home.

Strange's campaign issues page lists healthcare, jobs and the economy, child and elder care, conservation, accountability and political corruption, and privacy and freedom as issue areas.

Todd has supported bringing U.S. troops home and ending what his campaign calls "endless foreign" involvement, according to his campaign news page, and his issues page identifies national defense and war, gun rights, free speech, affordability, and free trade as central topics.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have poured $26,123,661 into this race as of Oct. 7, all of it tied to Republican candidates. Of that total, $17,138,896 was spent opposing candidates, and $8,984,765 was spent supporting candidates.

Outside spending totals included $7,484,113 from MAGA KY, $6,698,000 from Kentucky 4th PAC, $4,154,426 from United Democracy Project, $3,878,459 from RJC Victory Fund and $1,467,486 from Kentucky First PAC.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Republican" as of Sept. 25; Sabato's Crystal Ball gave it the same rating as of Sept. 29; and Inside Elections also rated it "Solid Republican" as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi's prediction market, as of Oct. 7, the Republican side of the race held a 94.22 percent probability of winning and the Democratic side held 5.78 percent.

Republican Thomas Massie won Kentucky's 4th U.S. House District with 65 percent of the vote in 2022 and 99.6 percent in 2024, according to AllCiv district records. Statewide, Donald Trump won Kentucky in the 2024 presidential election with 64.5 percent of the vote.

The voter-registration deadline, early-voting dates and hours, and Election Day polling hours for Kentucky's 4th District could not be verified as of Oct. 7, and early-voting details may vary by county clerk across the district's counties, so voters should check the Kentucky State Board of Elections and their county clerk's official page.

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