Who's In the Race

Louisiana's 5th Congressional District features 15 candidates in its open Nov. 3 general election. Under Louisiana's open-primary rules, if no candidate wins a majority, the top two advance to a runoff. ​

The seat is open after Luke Letlow died of complications related to COVID-19 five days before taking office. His spouse Julia Letlow (R-LA) subsequently held the seat and is not seeking re-election in 2026, as she is now running for Senate. The race has drawn candidates from both parties, with both Republicans and Democrats on the ballot.

The two major-party nominees are Democrat Dan McKay and Republican Stewart Cathey. Within the Republican field, Blake Miguez has collected four of the six total endorsements recorded in the race, more than any other candidate, with Misti Cordell and Michael Echols each holding one.

The Money Behind the Race

All candidates in the race have raised a combined $15.5 million through Oct. 19. Outside groups have spent about $205,000 supporting candidates in the race through Sept. 30, with no completed spending recorded in opposition to any candidate, according to FEC outside-spending records. Outside groups have spent about $100,000 supporting Michael Echols, the most completed outside support for any candidate in the race. Outside groups also spent about $70,000 supporting Julia Letlow, who is not running in 2026, and about $35,000 supporting Misti Cordell.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major handicapper rates this race firmly in Republican territory. Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of Oct. 19; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans a 96.44% chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 20, based on a market of 15,232 contracts; Democrats were priced at 3.56%.

The district's recent history supports that lean. Julia Letlow won the seat in 2022 with about 68% of the vote, and her Republican husband Luke Letlow was elected to the seat in 2024.

Republicans won five of the state's six U.S. House seats in 2022. In the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump carried Louisiana with about 60% of the vote.

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