Who's In the Race

Democrat Matthew Dunlap faces Republican Paul LePage in Maine's 2nd District. The seat is open because Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) said he would not seek reelection in 2026. ​

The ballot lists two candidates, so the race uses Maine's standard format rather than ranked-choice voting, which applies in federal general elections only when at least three candidates, including declared write-ins, are listed.

Dunlap has served as Maine's state auditor since January 2021 and previously served as Maine secretary of state from 2005 to 2011 and again from 2013 to 2021. He won the Democratic primary on June 9, 2026, after ranked-choice tabulation, with about 52 percent of the vote over runner-up Joe Baldacci, who received about 48 percent, according to Maine Public.

LePage served as Maine governor from 2011 to 2019 and, before that, as mayor of Waterville from 2004 to 2011. He ran unopposed in the June 9 Republican primary, according to Ballotpedia.

What They Stand For

LePage has proposed lowering costs and reducing inflation to ease pressure on family and senior-citizen budgets, according to his campaign website. He has also supported:

  • Raising MaineCare reimbursement rates, according to the Portland Press Herald;
  • Rejecting Medicaid expansion, according to Maine Beacon; and
  • Deportations as a response to Maine's housing pressures, according to Maine Beacon.

Dunlap has proposed raising MaineCare reimbursement rates, according to the Portland Press Herald.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Paul LePage had raised about $2.6 million and had about $1.7 million in cash on hand, more than seven times the roughly $229,000 that Matthew Dunlap had on hand after raising about $1.2 million.

Outside groups have spent about $101,000 supporting Dunlap, with National Nurses United for Patient Protection the largest completed spender at about $51,000 and Real Change PAC contributing about $50,000.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race "Lean Republican" as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it "Lean Republican" as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is LePage, a 64.71% chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 14, while Democrats, whose nominee is Dunlap, were priced at 35.29%.

In 2024, Jared Golden won the district with about 49% of the vote. Maine's 2nd U.S. House District had a race in 2022. Democrats won both of Maine's U.S. House seats in 2024. In the 2024 presidential race, Kamala Harris carried Maine with about 52% of the vote.

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