The Race
Democrat Richard Neal is running for re-election in the Massachusetts 1st U.S. House District, a contested seat heading to the general election on Nov. 3. The Democratic primary happens first, on Sept. 1, with Jeromie Whalen competing for the nomination. Republicans field their own primary slate that same day.
Ratings
Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all agree that this district is rated Solid Democratic.
Prediction Markets
On Kalshi, as of late June, Democrats are sitting at 98.12% to win the general election, while Republicans languish at 1.88%.
Experts vs. Markets
The Solid Democratic rating from the three major forecasters aligns neatly with Kalshi's overwhelming Democratic probability.
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