Who's In the Race

Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA), the Democratic incumbent, is running against Independent Nadia Millerion for Massachusetts's 1st Congressional District. ​

Neal taught high-school history before entering elected office, served as Springfield's mayor from 1984 to 1988, was first elected to Congress in 1988, and has represented Massachusetts's 1st District since 2013. He later became ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee.

Neal won the Democratic primary on Sept. 1, taking 49,325 votes over runner-up Jeromie Whalen, who received 41,884 votes, in a five-candidate field.

Milleron is an attorney, farmer, and mother from Sheffield who became an aviation-safety advocate after her daughter died in the 2019 Boeing 737 MAX crash; her campaign says she helped lead passage of the Aircraft Certification, Safety, and Accountability Act in 2020.

What They Stand For

Neal has said Congress should "continue to protect and improve the Affordable Care Act" and has supported expanding access to coverage and lowering prescription-drug costs, according to his campaign website. He has supported clean-energy production, clean vehicles, and clean manufacturing as part of federal action on climate change, per his campaign site. His campaign has described his priorities as "fairer taxes" and "building an economy that works for everyone," with a focus on jobs in western and central Massachusetts. He has supported comprehensive immigration reform, including pathways to citizenship and the DREAM Act, according to his campaign website. On reproductive health, Neal has said health-care decisions should be made by patients and their doctors, and he has supported abortion access and reproductive-health protections, according to a statement on his congressional website.

Milleron has supported eliminating federal income tax on earnings under $100,000 and closing corporate tax loopholes to reduce costs for working people, according to her campaign website. She has supported a job guarantee and opposed sending taxpayer money to fund foreign wars, saying she wants to "Invest in Well Being, Not War," per her campaign site. She has supported "kicking corporate insurance out of healthcare" and expanding access to doctors, mental-health professionals, and residency programs, according to her campaign website. She has proposed a Federal Medical Manufacturing Zone in the district to support domestic production of essential medicines, per her campaign site. She has supported capping rents, banning corporate speculators from buying local neighborhoods, and directing federal funding to community housing, according to her campaign website.

The Money Behind the Race

Neal raised about $2.5 million through Aug. 12, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, and had about $3.3 million in cash on hand.

Milleron raised about $550,000 through Sept. 30, per FEC filings, but carried about $575,000 in debt, leaving her with a cash-on-hand deficit of roughly $656,000.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Sept. 25; Sabato's Crystal Ball gave it the same rating as of Sept. 29; and Inside Elections also rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Neal, a 94.08% chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 8.

Neal carried the district with about 60% of the vote in 2022 and about 58% in 2024. Democrats won all nine of Massachusetts's U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024. Kamala Harris carried Massachusetts in the 2024 presidential election with about 61% of the vote.

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