Who's In the Race

Democrat Christina Hines faces Republican Mike Bouchard in the November 3 general election in Michigan's 10th District. The seat is open because Rep. John James (R-MI) left to run for Michigan governor, according to the Associated Press. ​

Hines, who describes herself as a former prosecutor and lifelong Macomb County resident, says she handled cases involving homicide, human trafficking, hate crimes and sexual assault; she earned degrees from the University of Michigan and Wayne State University Law School. She won the Aug. 4 Democratic primary with about 47 percent of the vote, more than 17 percentage points ahead of runner-up Eric Chung, who received about 30 percent.

Bouchard is a U.S. Army veteran who served in the 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions, including missions to Iraq and the southern border, and received the Bronze Star for leadership in a joint task force against ISIS. He won the Aug. 4 Republican primary with about 72 percent of the vote, more than 54 percentage points ahead of runner-up Justin Kirk, who received about 18 percent.

What They Stand For

Hines has proposed making healthcare more affordable by negotiating prescription prices and strengthening Medicare, Medicaid, and the Affordable Care Act, according to her campaign website. She has also supported:

  • Legislation to curb excessive grocery-price increases and ban "surveillance pricing," where companies use personal data to set prices,
  • Reasserting congressional authority over trade policy and using tariffs strategically to protect workers and industries,
  • Federal investment in wastewater and stormwater infrastructure, lead-pipe replacement and Great Lakes restoration; and
  • Clean-energy investment, electric-vehicle production and advanced manufacturing as ways to reduce pollution while creating jobs.

Bouchard has proposed finishing the border wall, restoring the "Remain in Mexico" policy and ending catch-and-release, according to his campaign website. He also supports:

  • Protecting Michigan manufacturing and bringing jobs back while cutting red tape for small businesses,
  • A Parents' Bill of Rights giving parents a say in school curriculum, with schools focusing on core subjects,
  • Policies to lower costs for families facing high prices for everyday essentials; and
  • Consumer choice in healthcare, opposing what he calls a "one-size-fits-all" government program.

The Money Behind the Race

Through Aug. 19, Bouchard had raised about $1.6 million and had about $1.1 million in cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings; through July 15, Hines had raised about $1.2 million and had about $158,000 on hand, giving Bouchard roughly seven times as much cash to spend heading into the fall.

Outside groups have spent about $500,000 supporting Hines, with Pro-Choice Majority Action accounting for nearly all of it at about $500,000. Outside groups have spent about $157,000 supporting Bouchard, with Honor, Duty & Discipline PAC as the largest spender at about $157,000.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss-up as of Oct. 9, and Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 11. On Kalshi, as of Oct. 19, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Hines, a 67.68 percent chance of winning the seat, with Republicans, whose nominee is Bouchard, at 32.32 percent.

John James won the seat in both 2022, with 48.8 percent of the vote, and 2024, with 51.1 percent. Michigan's congressional delegation has been closely divided: Democrats won seven of the state's 13 U.S. House seats in 2022, while Republicans flipped the advantage and won seven seats in 2024. Donald Trump carried Michigan in the 2024 presidential race with about 50 percent of the vote.

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