Who's In the Race

The race for Michigan's 10th U.S. House District rests between Democrat Christina Hines, who won her party's primary on Aug. 4 with 47 percent of the vote in a three-way race, and Republican Mike Bouchard, who won his primary the same day with 72 percent of the vote. [](#ngr-a780ade0-5e55-4d20-a13c-660ac9f0687e)

What They Stand For

Christina Hines (Democrat)

Hines centers her campaign on the cost of living, pledging to "reassert congressional authority over trade and economic policies so that we can reflect the will of the people, not just the priorities of one administration," and to combat corporate price gouging on prescriptions, housing, and groceries.

She has pledged to protect and fully fund Social Security and Medicare, and has stated support for universal healthcare. On reproductive rights, Hines supports passing the Women's Health Protection Act to establish a federally protected right to abortion, describing reproductive rights as a "fundamental freedom." She is endorsed by EMILY's List and Reproductive Freedom for All.

Drawing on her background as a prosecutor, Hines views gun violence as a public-health issue and supports universal background checks, red flag laws, and strengthened safe storage requirements. She is endorsed by Giffords. She has also called for legislation targeting social media companies she says profit from addicting children, and supports expanded access to substance use disorder treatment.

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Mike Bouchard (Republican)

Bouchard makes border security his lead issue, stating on his campaign website: "I stand for finishing the wall, restoring the 'Remain in Mexico' policy, and ending catch-and-release once and for all."

On the economy, Bouchard has stated support for protecting Michigan manufacturing and American jobs, writing: "I support President Trump's efforts to protect Michigan manufacturing, defend American jobs, and ensure that our workers (not China or Washington bureaucrats) shape the future of our economy."

Bouchard, a U.S. Army Captain and Bronze Star recipient who returned from a combat deployment to Iraq in October 2025, has made support for military families and veterans a central theme, citing commitments to expanding career resources for veterans and improving healthcare efficiency at the Department of Veterans Affairs.

His campaign website states he will support a "Parents' Bill of Rights" so that "moms and dads always have a say in what their kids are being taught." Trump's endorsement statement, as reported by the *Detroit News*, listed advancing election integrity and defending the Second Amendment among the priorities Bouchard would champion in Congress.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have spent $664,294 in independent expenditures in this race through periodic Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings covering activity through Sept. 21. Of that total, $507,396 was spent on Democratic candidates, and $156,899 was spent on Republican candidates.

All recorded outside spending, $664,294, has gone toward supporting candidates. No opposition spending has been recorded in periodic filings.

An additional $808,457 in 24/48-hour notices filed through Sept. 24, has not yet been restated in periodic reports and is not included in those totals. Including those pending notices, the race total reaches roughly $1.47 million.

Pro-Choice Majority Action is the largest single outside spender in available records, putting just under $500,000 into the race, though the records are incomplete. Blue Shift PAC has spent $2,125, and AAPI Victory Fund, Inc. has spent $2,000.

The committee leaderboard is incomplete; additional spending from other committees is recorded but not fully captured in available aggregated data, so the ranking above may understate the full field of outside spenders.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Both the Cook Political Report (as of Sept. 11) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (as of Sept. 22) rate this race a toss-up, with the consensus rating as of Sept. 23 reflecting the same.

Prediction market Kalshi gave the Democrat a 66 percent chance of winning and the Republican a 34 percent chance as of Sept. 24, based on $22,300 in market volume.

The district itself has been closely contested: Republican John James won the seat in both 2022, with about 49 percent of the vote, and 2024, with about 51 percent. Republicans won seven of Michigan's 13 House seats in 2022, then Democrats won seven of 13 in 2024, a shift in control between cycles rather than an even split within either one.

Democrats also won the state's 2024 U.S. Senate race. At the presidential level, Donald Trump carried Michigan in 2024 with nearly 50 percent of the vote.

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