Who's In the Race

Democrat Donavan McKinney beat incumbent Shri Thanedar in Michigan's 13th District Democratic primary with 51.9 percent of the vote, while Republican T.P. Nykoriak advanced from the Republican primary uncontested. The two face off in November's general election.

McKinney won 57,714 votes in a two-candidate Democratic primary that drew 111,208 total votes. Nykoriak won 18,470 votes.

What They Stand For

McKinney says raising taxes on billionaires and corporations could pay for housing, education, clean air and water, fairly paid jobs, and health care. His campaign lays out those goals on its Priorities page.

His campaign says that Medicare for all should cover dental care, vision care, mental health care, reproductive health care, and abortion care. Abortion care is listed as part of what should be covered, not as a separate proposal.

McKinney also supports progressive taxation. His campaign ties higher taxes on billionaires and corporations directly to paying for public investments. The official campaign material found in research did not provide enough detail to responsibly list five separate planks.

Nykoriak supports federal decriminalization of marijuana. His campaign says Congress should work with the president to remove marijuana from the federal list of controlled substances where appropriate.

The Money Behind the Race

Race-specific outside spending tied to Democratic candidates totals $3,214,521. That figure reflects independent spending counted toward official totals through coverage ending Sept. 21.

Of that spending, $2,738,386.00 backed candidates and $476,134.60 opposed candidates. The support total came across 67 expenditures, while the opposition total came across 10 expenditures. Those headline totals do not include unrestated 24- and 48-hour notices filed after Sept. 21 and through Sept. 29.

Filings through the most recent periodic report cover through Sept. 21. Additional notices filed after that date exist but had not yet been restated in a periodic report, with the race record pointing to $944,858 in pending notices as of Sept. 29.

The five listed committees rank as Protect Progress at $2,030,345, National Nurses United for Patient Protection at $400,000, Justice Democrats PAC at $346,335, Working Families Party PAC at $306,790, and PAF at $40,000.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Four pundit ratings all call the race Solid Democratic. Cook lists Solid Democratic as of Sept. 25. Sabato lists Solid Democratic as of Sept. 22. Inside Elections lists Solid Democratic as of Sept. 17. The consensus rating is Solid Democratic as of Sept. 28.

Prediction-market odds from Kalshi as of Sept. 29 give Democrats a 99.9 percent chance and Republicans a 0.01 percent chance. Trading volume in that market was 1,185.

Michigan as a state is seen as purple and competitive across its federal House and Senate races. Republicans won seven of 13 House races in 2022, while Democrats won six. Democrats won seven of 13 House races in 2024, while Republicans won six. Elissa Slotkin won Michigan’s 2024 Senate seat as a Democrat.

Donald Trump won Michigan in the 2024 presidential election with 49.727 percent of the vote. That statewide split shows why Michigan often draws close attention. A state can vote one way for president. It can vote another way for House seats. Voters do not always follow one party line.

Thanedar won Michigan’s 13th District in 2022 as a Democrat with 71.083 percent of the vote. He won the same district in 2024 as a Democrat with 68.643 percent of the vote. Those district results were more Democratic than the statewide picture.

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