Who's In The Race

Michigan's 7th U.S. House District sends one member to Congress, and this fall voters there will choose between two nominees whose primaries were decided on Aug. 4. ​

William Lawrence is the Democratic nominee and Tom Barrett is the Republican nominee.

Lawrence won the Democratic primary with 43 percent of the vote, according to the AllCiv race record; runner-up Bridget Brink finished with 29 percent. Barrett ran unopposed in the Republican primary, taking 100 percent of the vote.

What They Stand For

Lawrence describes himself as an organizer and coalition-builder who was raised in the Lansing area, according to his campaign website. Barrett is a 22-year U.S. Army veteran, according to his campaign website, and previously served in both the Michigan House and Michigan Senate.

Lawrence has supported making housing more affordable, proposed guaranteeing health care, called for ending homelessness, backed taxing billionaires, and supported passing the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, all according to his campaign platform page.

Barrett's campaign says investments in infrastructure, tax and regulatory reform, and a lower cost of living are important to attracting business, according to his campaign issues page.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have spent $5,306,179 in Michigan's 7th District as of Oct. 7, according to the AllCiv race record.

By party, outside spending tied to Democratic candidates totaled $5,074,172, while spending tied to Republican candidates reached $232,007. Broken out by direction, $3,228,036 went toward supporting candidates and $2,078,143 toward opposing them.

The five largest outside spenders in the race were VoteVets at $2,153,682; Michigan Values PAC at $941,787; Crush MAGA PAC at $909,204; National Nurses United for Patient Protection at $400,000; and Elect Democratic Women at $249,782.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss-up as of Sept. 25; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it a Toss-up as of Sept. 29; and Inside Elections rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, as of Oct. 7, Lawrence held a 60 percent implied probability of winning and Barrett held 40 percent.

The district has flipped parties in back-to-back cycles: Democrat Elissa Slotkin won it in 2022 with 52 percent of the vote, and Barrett won it in 2024 with 50 percent. In the 2024 presidential race, Republican Donald J. Trump carried Michigan with nearly 50 percent of the vote statewide.

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