Who's In the Race

Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI) faces Democrat William Lawrence in the November 3 general election in Michigan's 7th Congressional District. The ballot also includes independent candidates, making this a multi-candidate race. Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections all rate the race a toss-up, and Republican Tom Barrett flipped the seat from Democrat Elissa Slotkin in 2024. ​

Barrett is an Army veteran who served 22 years, including deployments to Iraq, Guantanamo Bay, Kuwait, and the Korean DMZ, logging more than 1,000 hours flying helicopters; he also served four years each in the Michigan House and Michigan Senate before winning his congressional seat in 2024. He ran unopposed in the August 4 Republican primary.

Lawrence is a first-time candidate for public office who co-founded the Sunrise Movement, a climate-action organization, and also co-founded the Michigan Rent Is Too Damn High Coalition and the Mid-Michigan Tenant Resource Center; he was raised in East Lansing and lives in Lansing. He won the August 4 Democratic primary with about 44 percent of the vote, beating runner-up Bridget Brink, who received about 29 percent, by nearly 15 percentage points.

What They Stand For

Barrett has proposed requiring insurers to spend more of premium revenue on patient claims through his Care Over Profits Act, according to a WKAR/PBS debate transcript. He's also supported:

  • Giving residents the "ultimate decision" on data-center projects and restricting federal influence over those decisions,
  • Using tariffs to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States while calling for "calm and stability" in trade relationships,
  • A "firm, fair and humane" immigration policy anchored in border security; and
  • Signing the Taxpayer Protection Pledge and lowering the tax burden, according to his campaign website.

Lawrence has proposed Medicare for All, saying it would let everyone access care "for a lower price," according to his campaign website. He also supports:

  • Major federal investment in housing and a federal tenant bill of rights to address housing costs,
  • Investment to protect the climate, adapt to climate impacts and reduce electricity bills,
  • The PRO Act and labor unions, along with a billionaire minimum tax to help fund public services; and
  • Stopping U.S. arms transfers to Israel and pursuing peace and negotiations abroad.

The Money Behind the Race

Through July 15, Barrett had raised about $6.3 million and had about $2.9 million in cash on hand, while Lawrence had raised about $1.1 million and had about $383,000 on hand, giving Barrett roughly 7.5 times as much cash to spend heading into the fall, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

Outside groups have spent about $650,000 supporting William Lawrence and about $957,000 opposing him, including about $909,000 from Crush MAGA PAC, and about $226,000 supporting Tom Barrett, including about $170,000 from Americans for Prosperity Action, through September 30, 2026.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss-up as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it a Toss-up as of Oct. 2. Kalshi traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Lawrence, a 64% chance of winning the seat and Republicans, whose nominee is Barrett, a 36% chance, as of Oct. 19.

Democrat Elissa Slotkin carried the district with about 52 percent in 2022, and Republican Tom Barrett flipped it with about 50 percent in 2024. Democrats won seven of Michigan's 13 U.S. House seats in 2022, while Republicans won seven of them in 2024. Donald Trump carried Michigan in the 2024 presidential race with about 50 percent of the vote.

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