Michigan's 8th District Primary

Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet cruises toward the Aug. 4 primary unopposed while three Republicans compete for the chance to challenge her in November — a contest that forecasters already favor her to win.

Michigan's 8th Congressional District anchors the state's industrial mid-section, centered on Flint and the Tri-Cities corridor of Saginaw, Bay City, and Midland. The district takes in all of Saginaw and Bay counties, nearly all of Genesee County, and portions of Midland and Tuscola counties.

Michigan runs a standard partisan primary: registered voters choose a party ballot, and the top vote-getter from each advances to the general election. There is no top-two mechanism or ranked-choice component. Both the Republican and Democratic primaries fall on Aug. 4, with the general election scheduled for Nov. 3.

McDonald Rivet flipped the seat in 2024 and is seeking her first full reelection. She drew no Democratic challenger. Republicans fielded three candidates, though one has since suspended his campaign. The active GOP contest is a two-person race.

The Candidates

Democrats

McDonald Rivet has held the seat since Jan. 3, 2025. In the 119th Congress, she sits on the House Committee on Agriculture, including its Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities, Risk Management, and Credit, and on the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. Her sponsored legislation includes the No Profiting from Public Service Act and the Local Foods for Healthy Schools Act of 2026. Her office reports returning more than $10 million to constituents through casework. She is a member of the New Democrat Coalition and in June 2026 joined a pro-capitalist initiative called "Promise to America." With no primary opponent, she advances automatically to the general election.

Republicans

Alfred Lemmo is a retired mechanical engineer who spent more than 30 years as a civilian engineer at the U.S. Army's Tank-Automotive Research, Development and Engineering Center in Warren, Michigan. Earlier in his career, he conducted automotive safety research at Ford Motor Company and worked in systems engineering at Union Carbide. A 1974 graduate of Union College, he earned two degrees with honors and received a military citation from the National Defense University in 2000. Lemmo carries the most significant institutional backing in the Republican field: Donald Trump has endorsed him, an advantage that typically carries weight in a Republican primary electorate.

Amir Hassan is a Flint native and U.S. Navy veteran who served from 2006 to 2013. After his service, he worked as a federal law enforcement officer in Washington, D.C., protecting presidential Cabinet secretaries of both parties. He returned to the Saginaw Valley and built his campaign around restoring jobs and economic opportunity to the region. The Guardian Fund PAC, which backs law enforcement and military veterans running for office, supports his candidacy.

Thomas J. Smith suspended his campaign July 16-17, 2026, and endorsed John James, but his name remains on the Aug. 4 ballot. Smith, a retired engineer, had centered his campaign on themes of faith, family, hard work, and personal responsibility. His name appears in official records in several variations, including "Tom Smith" and "Thomas 'Tom' J. Smith," all tied to the same FEC filing. A vote for Smith on Aug. 4 goes to a candidate who is no longer actively running.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending in the Michigan 8th District primary 2026 cycle has been almost nonexistent. Through June 30, independent expenditure filings reported $313 in total outside spending. No communication costs were reported alongside those expenditures.

The sole outside spender on record is GiveGreen United Action, which accounts for the full $313. Every dollar supports McDonald Rivet. No outside group has filed spending in opposition to any candidate, and no outside money supports any Republican primary contender.

All candidates combined have raised $6,592,511 in the race, per Federal Election Commission records, though that figure spans the full candidate pool and is not broken down by individual in the available data.

Ratings vs. Odds

Three of the major political forecasters have weighed in on the general election matchup. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates the seat "Likely Democratic" as of July 16. Inside Elections also rates it "Likely Democratic," a rating it issued June 30. Cook Political Report is one step more cautious, rating the race "Lean Democratic" as of July 16. The consensus rating, aggregated as of July 23, sits at "Likely Democratic."

On Kalshi, the Democratic nominee trades at 90.3% probability of winning the seat, with the Republican at 9.7%. That market had recorded $2,486 in trading volume as of July 26. The prediction market and the ratings consensus point in the same direction: a district that leans toward the Democratic incumbent, with a Republican path to victory that forecasters treat as the less likely outcome.

The Republican primary on Aug. 4 will determine which candidate takes on McDonald Rivet in November.

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