Who's In the Race
This race has captured the nation's attention.
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers, Libertarian Lydia Lynn Christensen, Green Party's Douglas P. Marsh, U.S. Taxpayers Party's Timothy Long, and independent TJ Stephens in the November 3 general election in Michigan's U.S. Senate race. The seat is held by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), who announced he would not seek reelection in 2026, according to the Associated Press.
El-Sayed is a physician and epidemiologist who earned a medical degree from Columbia University and a doctorate from Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar. He previously rebuilt Detroit's Health Department after the city's bankruptcy and served as Wayne County's health director. El-Sayed won the Aug. 4 Democratic primary with about 48% of the vote, edging runner-up Haley Stevens, who received about 48%, by less than one percentage point.
Rogers served in the U.S. Army and later as an FBI special agent, then represented Michigan's 8th Congressional District in the U.S. House from 2001 to 2015, where he chaired the House Intelligence Committee. Rogers ran unopposed in the Aug. 4 Republican primary.
Former President Barack Obama turned out in Michigan to give El Sayad a boost. President Trump announced he would rally for Rogers in Michigan before the election on November 3.
What They Stand For
El-Sayed has proposed expanding Medicare to cover every American without premiums, copays, or deductibles, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:
- Negotiating prescription-drug prices for every drug and extending those prices beyond Medicare patients,
- "Targeted, smart tariffs" to protect Michigan manufacturing, with unions involved in economic decisions,
- Federal safety testing and accountability rules for artificial intelligence, opposing federal preemption of state action before federal legislation is in place; and
- Banning corporate and special-interest political spending, with public election funding and campaign-spending caps.
Rogers has proposed bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States, according to his campaign website. He also supports:
- Lowering the cost of gas, groceries, and prescription drugs,
- Protecting Social Security and Medicare for seniors,
- Prioritizing education and setting children up for success "not indoctrination"; and
- Reducing regulations and taxes on families and small businesses to secure energy independence, according to his campaign's Meet Mike page.
The Money Behind the Race
Through July 15, Abdul El-Sayed had raised about $14.5 million and held about $2.6 million in cash on hand, while Mike Rogers had raised about $10.9 million and held about $4.5 million, so Rogers held more cash despite raising less.
Outside groups have spent about $20.8 million opposing Abdul El-Sayed, and about $3.6 million supporting him, including $20.1 million from the United Democracy Project, through Sept. 30. For Mike Rogers, groups have spent about $14 million supporting him and about $6.4 million opposing him, including $6.8 million from Americans for Prosperity Action in support and $1.9 million from WinSenate in opposition.
Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets
Cook Political Report rated the race a Toss-up as of Oct. 12, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Lean Democratic as of Oct. 15. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is El-Sayed, a 67.65% chance of winning the seat as of Oct. 19, with Republicans, whose nominee is Rogers, at 32.35%.
Polling aggregated through Oct. 14 showed El-Sayed leading Rogers 48.1 percent to 45.0 percent. Michigan's other Senate seat was won by Democrat Elissa Slotkin in 2024 with about 49 percent of the vote. In Michigan's U.S. House races, Democrats held a 7-to-6 edge in 2022, but Republicans flipped one seat in 2024 to take a 7-to-6 majority of their own. Donald Trump carried Michigan in the 2024 presidential election with about 50 percent of the vote.
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