The Race
Democrat Kelly Morrison is running for re-election in Minnesota's third U.S. House District, where the Aug. 11 primary will likely see her cruise through unopposed while several Republicans duke it out for their party's nomination. The general election follows on Nov. 3.
Ratings
The Cook Political Report and its peers have rendered their verdict: this district is rated Solid Democratic as of June 2026, meaning Morrison's a heavy favorite, and the data reflects it.
Prediction Markets
Bettors on Kalshi are putting their money where the experts' mouths are. The platform's odds give the Democratic candidate a 98.8% probability of winning the general election compared to just 1.2% for the Republican nominee, as of June 29.
Experts vs. Markets
Prediction markets and ratings are in lockstep. The expert raters said Solid Democratic. The bettors said 98.8% Democratic. There's no hidden disagreement lurking in the numbers. When Cook Political Report ratings and Kalshi odds align this tightly, it's a sign the race is genuinely settled.
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