Minnesota U.S. Senate Primary

Minnesota voters head to the polls Aug. 11 to choose nominees for an open U.S. Senate seat after Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) decided not to seek a second full term.

The Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary features six candidates, led by Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. Republicans have a nine-candidate field that includes former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya, party-endorsed former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and 2024 Republican Senate nominee Royce White.

Minnesota holds a traditional partisan primary: voters select candidates from one party's ballot, and the candidate receiving the most votes in each contest advances to the Nov. 3 general election. There is no runoff or ranked-choice voting in the Senate primary.

Smith has represented Minnesota in the Senate since January 2018, when she was appointed to fill the vacancy created by Sen. Al Franken's resignation. She won the 2018 special election and a full six-year term in 2020. Her retirement leaves Minnesota's Class II Senate seat open for the first time since 2002.

The Candidates

Democratic Primary

Angie Craig has represented Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District since 2019. She serves as Ranking Member of the House Agriculture Committee, a post that carries particular weight in a state where farming and rural economies dominate large stretches of the electorate. Craig has positioned herself as a pragmatic, swing-district Democrat. She won a competitive suburban district repeatedly and argues that profile gives her the best chance of holding the seat in a general election.

Peggy Flanagan is Minnesota's current lieutenant governor, a position she has held since 2019. A member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, Flanagan is the highest-ranking Native American woman elected to executive office in the United States. Her campaign has centered on Indigenous sovereignty, children's policy, and working families.

Billy Nord also qualified for the DFL primary. He registered Billy Nord for Minnesota as his principal campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Peter John Murgic, George H. Kalberer and Kurt Michael Anderson round out the six-candidate DFL primary field.

Republican Primary

Michele Tafoya spent more than two decades as an NFL sideline reporter before transitioning to conservative media commentary. She entered the race in January 2026 with backing from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and financial support from a leadership PAC associated with Senate Republican Leader John Thune. She has never previously run for office.

Adam Schwarze served as a Marine infantryman and later as a Navy SEAL officer, completing nine deployments. He won the Minnesota Republican Party's official endorsement on the sixth ballot at the state convention in May 2026, making him the grassroots-preferred candidate in the field.

Royce White was drafted by the Houston Rockets and played professionally in the NBA G League and NBL Canada. The Minneapolis native ran in the 2022 Republican primary for Minnesota's 5th Congressional District and was the party's 2024 U.S. Senate nominee, losing to Sen. Amy Klobuchar. He is making his third consecutive federal run.

The remaining Republican candidates on the Aug. 11 ballot are Alycia Gruenhagen, Mark York, Mike Ruoho, Ray Petersen, Tom Weiler, Bob Carney Jr., Ahmad R. Hassan, Cynthia Gail, Joyce Lacey, and Patrick Munro.

The Money Behind the Race

Craig holds the largest fundraising advantage in the field. Angie Craig for Minnesota reported $11.93 million in total receipts from April 20, 2025, through June 30, 2026, according to the Federal Election Commission. Her campaign received $9.7 million from individual contributors, $749,835 from other political committees and $1.05 million in transfers from other authorized committees. Craig also loaned her campaign $373,000. Her campaign reported $6.9 million in disbursements during the period.

Peggy Flanagan ranks second among Democrats. Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota reported $6.04 million in receipts through June 30, including $5.82 million from individual contributors and $169,917 from other political committees. Her campaign spent $4.48 million and ended June with $1.57 million in cash on hand and no reported debt.

Billy Nord registered a principal campaign committee with the FEC, but the commission does not currently display a 2025-26 financial summary for his committee. Comparable current FEC financial summaries were not available for Murgic, Kalberer or Anderson.

On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads the field with $4.67 million in total receipts from Jan. 20 through June 30. Her campaign reported $4.07 million from individual contributors, $162,000 from other political committees and $62,000 from party committees. Tafoya ended June with $2.08 million in cash on hand and $331,512 in reported debt.

Adam Schwarze reported $1.39 million in receipts through June 30, including $1.21 million from individuals. His campaign spent $1.18 million, had $211,222 in cash on hand and reported $40,000 in debt.

Royce White reported $649,510 in receipts through June 30. His campaign reported $740,387 in disbursements, meaning it had spent more during the 2025-26 cycle than it had taken in through receipts.

Tom Weiler's latest available FEC financial summary shows $105,397 in receipts through March 31, including $36,708 from individual contributors and $53,070 in candidate loans. His campaign spent $56,433 and had $50,725 in cash on hand.

Outside groups have poured millions more into the race, overwhelmingly around the Craig-Flanagan Democratic primary.

Center Forward Committee reported roughly $1.23 million in independent expenditures, making it one of the largest outside spenders in the contest. DLGA reported approximately $1.15 million, while Unite to Win accounted for another $1 million. North Star Dawn PAC reported approximately $337,500 and Clear Voice Minnesota another $175,000.

The outside spending has included both positive and negative expenditures surrounding Craig and Flanagan. Smaller independent expenditures have also come from groups including Blue Majority Project, MoveOn.org Political Action and the Service Employees International Union's political arm.

Ratings vs. Odds

The major election forecasters favor Democrats to retain Minnesota's open Senate seat. The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections rate the race Likely Democratic. While the retirement of Smith removes the advantage of an incumbent from the race, all three forecasters still give the eventual Democratic nominee an advantage heading into November.

Prediction markets show an even larger Democratic advantage. As of Aug. 3, Kalshi traders gave Democrats a 91.4% probability of winning the general election, compared with 8.6% for Republicans. The market had recorded $87,352 in trading volume.

The traditional forecasters and prediction market therefore point toward the same outcome but differ in degree. The Likely Democratic ratings leave room for a competitive general election, while Kalshi traders priced a Republican victory as a significant long shot.

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