The Race

Rep. Ann Wagner (R-MO) is seeking another term representing Missouri's 2nd Congressional District and faces four Republican primary challengers on Aug. 4.

Democrats will also choose a nominee in a three-candidate primary, while Libertarians have one candidate on the certified primary ballot. The primary winners will advance to the Nov. 3 general election.

Missouri's 2nd Congressional District includes much of western and southern St. Louis County and Franklin County. Once considered a swing district, it has trended Republican in recent election cycles while remaining more competitive than many other Missouri congressional districts.

The Candidates

Ann Wagner (R-MO) has held Missouri's 2nd District seat since 2013. She sits on the House Committee on Financial Services, where she chairs the Subcommittee on Capital Markets, and on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Her legislative record spans financial regulation, human trafficking prevention, and foreign policy, including work on sanctions legislation such as the Upholding the Dayton Peace Agreement Through Sanctions Act. She won re-election in 2024 with 54.5 percent of the vote.

Her most prominent Republican challenger is Matthew Grant, a lawyer who attended Truman State University and the University of Missouri School of Law. Grant is running on a conservative platform and represents the primary's main intraparty contest against Wagner.

Also on the Republican ballot: Peter Pfeifer, Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes, and Brandon Wilkinson.

Fred Wellman leads the Democratic field by most visible measures. A Wildwood resident who grew up in Kirkwood, Wellman graduated from West Point, flew Army helicopters during Desert Storm, and completed three tours in Iraq before retiring after more than 20 years of military service. He has since worked as a veterans advocate and podcast host. Wellman has drawn endorsements from VoteVets and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch editorial board. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) placed MO-02 on its target list for the first time since 2020, a move that lifted the profile of the Democratic primary.

Also on the Democratic ballot: Tim Bilash, Nick Vivio, Joan VonDras, and Chuck Summers.

Three candidates compete in the Libertarian primary: Brandon Coulter Daugherty, Ashley Schepers, and Tom Schmitz.

Show Us The Money

Federal Election Commission filings show candidates in Missouri's 2nd Congressional District have collectively raised more than $5 million during the 2026 election cycle, led by incumbent Ann Wagner.

The original draft reported $5,350,611 in combined fundraising. That figure is generally consistent with the overall scale of fundraising in the race, although individual candidate reports should be cited when publishing because filing periods differ.

The original article also stated that outside groups reported $75.38 in independent expenditures, all from Heartland Wins opposing Wagner.

The FEC election page currently shows no readily accessible aggregate independent-expenditure totals, and the FEC notes that its aggregate election tables do not include independent expenditures reported solely through 24- and 48-hour filings. Accordingly, it cannot be stated categorically that only $75.38 in outside spending occurred without reviewing those reports separately.

Ratings

The nation's leading election forecasters agree Republicans remain favored to retain Missouri's 2nd Congressional District.

The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the district Solid Republican, reflecting broad agreement that Wagner or another Republican nominee would enter the general election as the favorite.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets also favor Republicans.

As of late July, Kalshi traders gave Republicans an 83% probability of winning Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, compared with 17% for Democrats. At the time, the market had recorded approximately $4,785 in trading volume.

Because prediction markets change continuously, those figures should be identified as a snapshot from late July.

Experts vs. Markets

Professional election forecasters and prediction markets point to the same likely outcome.

The major forecasters rate Missouri's 2nd Congressional District Solid Republican, while the cited Kalshi market gave Republicans an 83% probability of victory. Both indicate Republicans enter the November election as favorites, although the Aug. 4 primaries will determine each party's nominee.

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