Who's In The Race

Voters in Missouri's 2nd District will choose their member of Congress under the old district lines this fall, and on the same ballot decide whether a new map replaces them. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Sept. 25 that the 2022 map must be used this year, while Proposition A asks voters whether to keep the map Republican lawmakers drew in 2025, the Missouri Independent reported. ​

Under those lines, Missouri's 2nd U.S. House District covers parts of St. Louis, St. Charles and Warren counties and all of Franklin County. Rep. Ann Wagner (R-MO), a former U.S. ambassador to Luxembourg who has held the seat since 2013, is seeking an eighth term. She faces Democrat Fred Wellman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and former executive director of the Lincoln Project, and Libertarian Brandon Daugherty.

Wagner won the Aug. 4 Republican primary with about 74% of the vote over four challengers. Wellman narrowly won a three-way Democratic primary with about 46%, ahead of Joan VonDras and Timothy Bilash.

What They Stand For

Wagner backs the Republican tax law that cut taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security, and she supports a border wall and stricter immigration enforcement. She wrote the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act and says she will "always back our men and women in blue." She has also aired an ad attacking Wellman over transgender policies.

Wellman says "universal coverage must be our goal" and wants to restore Affordable Care Act subsidies, reverse Medicaid cuts and add a public option. He has criticized Wagner's support for the war with Iran and wants Congress to reclaim tariff authority, St. Louis Public Radio reported. In a KSDK interview, he said Wagner "may not be corrupt herself" but is "comfortable with those who are." Daugherty's campaign focuses on ending wars and deficit spending.

The Money Behind The Race

Wagner reported raising about $3.5 million this cycle through July 15 and had about $4.2 million in the bank, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Wellman reported raising about $1.2 million through the same date and had about $242,000 left.

Race Outlook: Ratings And Betting Markets

The forecasters disagree on how close this race is. The Cook Political Report rates it Likely Republican as of Sept. 25, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Lean Republican as of Sept. 29. Inside Elections calls it Solid Republican as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders favored Wagner at about 74% as of Thursday, Oct. 8.

Wagner won about 55% of the vote in both 2022 and 2024. Donald Trump carried Missouri with about 58% in 2024.

The registration deadline passed Wednesday, Oct. 7. Mail ballot applications are due at 5 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 21, and no-excuse in-person absentee voting runs from Tuesday, Oct. 20, through Monday, Nov. 2. Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

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