Who's In the Race

Rep. Bob Onder (R-MO) faces Democrat Bethany Mann and Libertarian Jim Higgins in Missouri's 3rd District November 3 general election. This is a rematch: Onder and Mann ran against each other in the same district in 2024. The 2026 primaries used a new congressional map, but the 2022 map will govern the general election. ​

Onder is a physician specializing in allergy, asthma, and clinical immunology who opened a private practice in 1992 and served patients for more than 30 years. Before coming to Congress, he served in the Missouri House of Representatives starting in 2006. He was elected to the Missouri State Senate in 2014, where he served as Assistant Majority Floor Leader. Onder won the August 4 Republican primary with about 66% of the vote over John G. Fraser, who received about 34%.

Mann is an environmental chemist and technology specialist whose work has included testing crops and forage for farmers and testing communities for contaminants such as lead and "forever chemicals." She grew up in Foristell, Missouri, lives in St. Peters, and earned a chemistry degree from the University of Illinois Springfield, beginning her career as an intern with the Environmental Protection Agency. Mann won the August 4 Democratic primary with about 69% of the vote over runner-up Tommy Holstein, who received about 18%.

What They Stand For

Onder has called for reining in federal spending and pursuing a simpler, fairer tax code to support job growth and higher paychecks, according to his official House website. He has also supported:

  • Reducing federal regulations he says burden families and businesses,
  • Tougher immigration enforcement, saying, "We must close our borders to the world's criminals and put Americans first,"
  • Second Amendment protections, pledging to "vigorously fight on behalf of gun owners"; and
  • Anti-abortion legislation, including the Born Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act.

Mann has proposed full and equal funding for public education from pre-K through higher education and union apprenticeships, according to her campaign website. She also supports:

  • Accessible, affordable physical and mental healthcare for patients, first responders, and healthcare workers,
  • Federal infrastructure investment in roads, bridges, broadband, and water systems, including in rural communities,
  • Clean air and water, preparation for extreme weather, and renewable-energy jobs; and
  • Removing barriers to voting and expanding ways eligible voters can participate.

The Money Behind the Race

Through July 15, Onder had raised about $950,000 and held about $471,000 in cash on hand, giving him roughly a 22-to-1 fundraising advantage over Mann, who had raised about $43,000 and had just $2,776 in the bank, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Onder's debt of $894,000 is nearly equal to his total receipts, representing about 94 percent of what he has raised.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of October 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Republican as of October 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican as of October 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is Onder, a 96.3% chance of winning as of October 15; Democrats, whose nominee is Mann, stood at 3.7%.

The district has backed Republicans in each of the last two cycles: Onder won it with about 61% in 2024, and Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer carried it with about 65% in 2022, a drop of about four percentage points between the two elections. Republicans won six of Missouri's eight U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024. Donald Trump carried Missouri in the 2024 presidential election with about 58% of the vote.

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