Who's In the Race

Montana's 1st U.S. House District heads to a Nov. 3 general election as an open seat, with the previous holder not seeking re-election. Both party primaries were certified after the June 2 vote.

Republican Aaron Flint won his primary with 50 percent of the vote, taking 40,880 ballots out of 81,554 cast across four candidates. Democrat Sam Forstag advanced from a four-way Democratic primary with 37 percent, or 25,854 votes out of 69,349 cast, a margin of about 2,900 votes over his nearest rival.

Flint is a decorated combat veteran, fifth-generation Montanan, and longtime Montana radio host. Forstag is a former U.S. Forest Service smokejumper, union vice president, and state legislative advocate.

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What They Stand For

Aaron Flint

Flint's campaign homepage lists border security as a central commitment, calling for keeping "our Border SECURE" and stopping "Migrant Crime," framing the issue as a public safety concern. On energy, the site calls for "Unleash American Energy DOMINANCE," and in a questionnaire response to the Montana Electric Cooperatives' Association, Flint stated his goal is "a clean environment and affordable, reliable energy" accessible to families, farmers, ranchers, and businesses.

Flint's About page calls for making "a high school degree worth something again, to promote trades and common sense, to manufacture and mine in Montana, and to make the Montana Dream affordable again." His campaign homepage also lists cutting taxes and regulations, promoting domestic manufacturing, and championing farmers and ranchers as core economic planks. A campaign press release highlights expanded trades education as part of his economic platform, citing key trade union support.

On the Second Amendment, the campaign homepage lists "Defend our always under siege Second Amendment" as a core commitment. The site also lists supporting the military and veterans and safeguarding elections as explicit priorities, with Flint's own identity as a combat veteran central to his candidacy.

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Sam Forstag

Forstag's campaign website calls housing costs in Montana "a crisis" and proposes investing in affordable housing through community land trusts, deed-restricted housing, and public-private partnerships, while "cracking down on hedge funds and corporate investors buying up housing and pricing families out of their communities."

On healthcare, the platform calls for allowing everyone to buy into Medicare, expanding Affordable Care Act subsidies "to make it free for working people," and ensuring coverage includes vision and dental.

Forstag's background as a smokejumper anchors his public lands plank. The campaign website states that recent cuts to federal land agencies have resulted in "National Forests without trail crews, National Parks without enough rangers, slower and less effective wildfire response," and calls for reversing those cuts and reinvesting in the agencies and the jobs they provide.

On taxes, the platform calls for repealing the provisions of what it calls the "Big Beautiful Bill" that benefited "corporations and the ultra-wealthy," while keeping provisions that help working people, specifically citing no taxes on overtime and tips, and redirecting those savings toward housing, healthcare, and childcare.

The campaign website notes Montana currently has "one childcare slot available for every two to three children who need one" and that parents who find care pay an average of nearly $19,000 per year, and calls for federal investment to make childcare affordable and accessible.

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The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have poured $1,541,915 into the race in independent expenditures, all of it in support of candidates rather than in opposition.

Spending targeting the Republican candidate totals $1,217,535 across 33 filings, while spending targeting the Democratic candidate totals $324,380 across eight filings.

American Mission has reported $590,427 across five filings, making it the single largest outside spender in the race. Leadership in Action follows with $263,669 across 15 filings. Progressive Turnout Project has reported $253,505 across six filings. Make Montana Great has reported $228,495 across nine filings. Seal PAC USA rounds out the top five at $100,000 across two filings.

The committee leaderboard does not indicate whether each committee's spending supported or opposed a specific candidate.

An additional $1,055,234 in pending 24/48-hour notices filed through Sept. 28 has not yet been restated in a periodic report, bringing the total with pending notices to roughly $2.6 million.

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Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Three major race-rating services place this contest firmly in Republican territory. Cook Political Report rates the race "Lean Republican" as of Sept. 25. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it "Likely Republican" as of Sept. 22. Inside Elections also rates it "Likely Republican" as of Sept. 17. The consensus rating, as of Sept. 25, is "Lean Republican."

On Kalshi, the prediction market gives Republicans a 71 percent chance of winning the seat and Democrats a 29 percent chance, as of Sept. 28, based on $266,469 in trading volume.

Montana's recent federal election history reinforces that Republican lean.

In 2022, Ryan Zinke won Montana's 1st U.S. House District with about 50 percent of the vote, and Matthew Rosendale won the 2nd District with nearly 57 percent. In 2024, Republicans swept all three federal congressional races: Zinke held the 1st District with 52 percent, Troy Downing won the 2nd District with 66 percent, and Tim Sheehy flipped the U.S. Senate seat with nearly 53 percent. At the top of the ticket that same year, Donald Trump carried Montana with 58 percent of the presidential vote.

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