Who's In the Race

Republican Kelly Ayotte faces Democrat Cinde Wamington in New Hampshire's governor's race on Nov. 3. Ayotte is the incumbent governor and is seeking reelection. ​

Both nominees won their primaries on Sept. 8. Ayotte won the Republican primary with 92% of the vote, collecting 94,381 votes. Warmington, manwhile, won a two-candidate Democratic primary with 126,223 votes, or about 96% of the 131,011 ballots cast.

Endorsements

Former President Barack Obama and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris have both endorsed Warmington, while no president or former president has endorsed Ayotte. Among the organizations backing her reelection are the National Federation of Independent Business and the Humane World Action Fund.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Polling

Three major forecasters have weighed in on New Hampshire's governor's race, and all three lean the same direction. Cook Political Report rated the race Likely Republican, updated Oct. 28; Sabato's Crystal Ball also rated it Likely Republican, updated Oct. 28; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Republican, updated Oct. 23.

Polling aggregated by Legis1 through Oct. 23 showed Ayotte leading Warmington 51% to 41%, a margin of 9.3 points, based on 26 polls with the most recent conducted Oct. 31. Such a gap in polling averages this close to Election Day is difficult to close, though the race has not been rated completely out of reach by forecasters.

Previous Elections

In the 2024 presidential election, New Hampshire voted Democratic: Kamala Harris carried the state with 51% of the vote to Donald Trump's 48%. That three-point margin at the presidential level stands in contrast to the lead Ayotte holds in current governor's race polling.

Meanwhile, in 2022, Republican Chris Sununu defeated Democrat Tom Sherman for the governor's seat by 96,047 votes, 57% to 41%. Ayotte, who was not the 2022 nominee, now holds the seat Sununu vacated and faces the challenge of defending it against a Democratic challenger in a state that swung toward Democrats at the presidential level two years ago.

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