The Race
Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway is running for a second term in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district, facing Republican Michael McGuire in the November 3, general election. Conaway was unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary, while McGuire took 57.9% of the Republican vote with nearly all ballots counted, beating Jason Cullen (24.4%) and Justin Barbera (17.7%).
McGuire is a Marine Corps veteran and former New York City police officer. Running on affordability and veterans' issues, he launched his campaign in January after he and fellow Navy reservists missed several paychecks during the federal government shutdown.
Two others are on the November ballot: Ryan Kelly of the Affordability, Accountability, People Party and Green Party candidate Steven Welzer. The district covers most of Burlington County plus parts of Mercer and Monmouth.
Ratings
All three major forecasters have this one filed away: Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both rate it Solid Democratic; Sabato's Crystal Ball has it Safe Democratic. The district carries a Cook PVI of D+5, and Kamala Harris carried it 53.4% to 45.0% in 2024.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket traders give Democrats a 92% chance of holding the seat and Republicans 7%. Total volume since the market opened January 28 is roughly $19,800, thin by prediction-market standards, a signal worth reading but not a deep one.
Experts vs. Markets
Raters and bettors are saying the same thing. Through May 13, Conaway had raised $815,436 to McGuire's $70,515, and held $384,703 in cash to McGuire's $3,822. Conaway added roughly $119,000 in the second quarter and closed it with about $439,000 on hand.
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