Who's In the Race

Rep. Herb Conaway Jr. (D-NJ) faces Republican Michael McGuire and independent Ryan Michael Kelly in the November 3 general election in New Jersey's 3rd District. The district's boundaries were redrawn in 2021, with the new lines first used in 2022. ​

Conaway, an internal medicine physician and attorney, served 25 years in the New Jersey state Assembly and chaired its Health Committee before joining the U.S. House in 2025. He ran unopposed in the June 2 Democratic primary.

McGuire is a Marine Corps veteran, a former New York City police officer who responded on Sept. 11, 2001, and a family-law attorney and small-business advisor. He won the June 2 Republican primary with about 58 percent of the vote over runner-up Jason Cullen, who received about 24 percent.

Kelly is an educator and former federal civil servant who spent 13 years in Department of Homeland Security operations and served on the Lake Como Borough Council in Monmouth County.

What They Stand For

Conaway has said health care is "a fundamental human right, not a privilege for the wealthy," according to his official House website. He's also supported:

  • An economy that benefits families in the district,
  • Ending what he called "corrupt tariffs" and overseas conflicts that drive up gas prices, according to WHYY,
  • A resolution to remove U.S. troops from the Iran conflict, which he called "senseless and illegal" and said Congress had not authorized; and
  • Describing the U.S.-Israel partnership as "essential" while calling for an end to what he characterized as inhumane and reckless actions in the Middle East, according to WHYY.

McGuire has proposed restoring affordability by cutting "wasteful and ineffective government spending" and lowering taxes on middle- and working-class families, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • Congressional term limits, arguing public service should be a temporary duty,
  • Funding military readiness and improving veterans' access to health care, including mental-health services,
  • Repealing the federal cap on the state and local tax deduction, auditing federal agencies and curbing deficit spending; and
  • Domestic energy production and grid modernization, with a foreign-policy approach he describes as "peace through strength," according to WHYY.

Kelly has supported universal, single-payer health care and says access should not depend on income, employment or insurance bureaucracy, according to his campaign website.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Conaway had raised about $935,000 and held about $439,000 in cash on hand, roughly 544 times the about $807 that McGuire had on hand; McGuire had raised about $79,000 over the same period.

McGuire also carried about $94,600 in debt as of June 30, more than the roughly $79,200 he had raised in total. Outside groups have spent $10 in completed independent expenditures supporting Conaway, all from Sierra Club Independent Action.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report rated the race "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 19; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it "Solid Democratic" as of Oct. 2. On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Conaway, a 96.52 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 20, while Republicans, whose nominee is McGuire, stood at 3.48 percent.

Democrats have carried the district in both elections since its boundaries were redrawn, with Andy Kim winning about 55 percent in 2022 and Conaway winning about 53 percent in 2024, a drop of about two percentage points. Democrats have held nine of New Jersey's 12 U.S. House seats in both 2022 and 2024, with Republicans holding the other three. In the 2024 presidential race, Kamala Harris carried New Jersey with about 52 percent of the vote.

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