The Race
The 2026 midterm election predictions are already heating up in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, and there's an intriguing mismatch between what the traditional forecasters say and what the money is betting. Incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas is seeking re-election in a race that's drawing serious attention from both camps, and their diverging confidence levels tell us something important about the state of this seat.
Ratings
Cook Political Report rates this as "Likely Democratic," while both Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections call it "Lean Democratic."
Prediction Markets
Kalshi prediction markets are showing Democrats at a stunning 89.8% probability of victory, with Republicans at just 10.2%.
Experts vs. Markets
The expert raters are giving Democrats a "likely" win with caution flags. The betting markets are essentially calling this a done deal. Either the prediction markets are overconfident in Pappas's incumbency advantage, or the expert forecasters are being overly cautious about a race that's already decided.
The truth likely sits somewhere in between: Pappas is the clear favorite, but the expert consensus is right to preserve some uncertainty. Primaries are on September 8 and could shake things up.
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