Who's In the Race

Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) faces Republican Jackie Auringer in the November 3 general election in New York's 18th District. ​

Ryan is a U.S. Army veteran who served two combat tours in Iraq and earned two Bronze Stars, and he previously served as Ulster County executive from 2019 to 2022 before serving as the U.S. representative for New York's 18th District since 2023.

Auringer is a Kingston native who works in her family's construction business as a project manager and managerial accountant, and holds a marketing degree from the Lutgert College of Business.

What They Stand For

Ryan says his top priority is delivering economic relief, and he supports lowering grocery and other costs, according to his campaign website. He's also supported:

  • Making housing more affordable, including lowering mortgage rates and limiting Wall Street firms' effects on housing costs,
  • Protecting Social Security and Medicare from cuts,
  • Reproductive rights, including access to abortion and IVF; and
  • Gun-safety measures including red-flag laws, an assault-weapons ban, and universal background checks, according to his campaign website.

Auringer has proposed lowering taxes and the cost of living, including energy and healthcare costs, and says she wants to make the region a place people can afford to stay. She's also supported:

  • Cutting wasteful government spending and reducing burdens on working families and small businesses,
  • Local economic opportunities, including small-business growth, skilled trades, and education tied to regional careers; and
  • Worker protections in the new artificial-intelligence economy.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Pat Ryan had raised about $4.7 million and held about $3.1 million in cash on hand, while Jackie Auringer had raised $89,698 and held $61,255 in cash, giving Ryan a substantial financial edge in both total receipts and cash on hand. Outside groups have spent about $916 in the race, all of it supporting Ryan and none opposing him or Auringer.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Every major handicapper rates this seat out of reach for Republicans. Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Ryan, a 95.42% chance of winning as of Oct. 16, with Republicans, whose nominee is Auringer, at 4.58%.

The district's recent history supports that picture. Ryan won the 2022 race with 45.18% of the vote, less than a majority, then won the 2024 race with 52.23%, crossing the majority threshold and raising his vote share by more than seven percentage points. New York Democrats held 18 of the state's 26 U.S. House seats after 2022 and grew that to 19 after 2024, a net gain of one seat.

In the 2024 presidential race, Democrat Kamala Harris carried New York with about 55% of the vote.

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