The Race
Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) is seeking re-election in New York's 24th congressional district after advancing unopposed in the Republican primary on June 23. She will face Alissa Ellman (D-NY), who defeated Diana Kastenbaum in the Democratic primary the same day. The district stretches along the Lake Ontario shoreline and includes communities from Jefferson County to western New York.
Ratings
The nation's leading election forecasters agree that New York's 24th congressional district strongly favors Republicans. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the race Solid Republican, while Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it Safe Republican. Although Sabato uses different terminology, all three organizations project Republicans will retain the seat.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets also favor Republicans by a wide margin. As of late June, Kalshi traders gave Republicans an 84.16% probability of winning New York's 24th congressional district, compared with 15.84% for Democrats. The market reflected a significant Republican advantage while still assigning a measurable probability of a Democratic victory.
Experts vs. Markets
Professional election forecasters and prediction markets point to the same likely outcome in New York's 24th congressional district.
While traditional race ratings classify the district as Solid Republican or Safe Republican, Kalshi assigns Republicans an 84.16% probability of victory. Both forecasting methods indicate Tenney enters the general election as the clear favorite, although the prediction market reflects a greater possibility of an upset than traditional race ratings imply.
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