Who's In the Race

Democrat Wesley Bell and Republican Paul Berry won their parties' Aug. 4 primaries for Missouri's 1st U.S. House District, and the general election is set for Nov. 3. Bell, the incumbent, won the Democratic primary with 59 percent of the vote while Berry won the Republican primary with 53 percent.

What They Stand For

Bell's campaign says he supports leaving abortion decisions to a woman and her doctor, not the government or politicians. On the economy, Bell says he wants to lower health-insurance and prescription-drug prices and protect seniors.

He describes climate change as a crisis and argues that confronting it and growing the economy are not contradictory goals. As the former St. Louis County prosecutor, Bell created a gun-violence task force that seized more than 200 illegal firearms, according to his campaign website.

Berry's campaign describes his agenda as defeating "radical socialism," protecting Missouri communities, defending American values, and securing the future.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside spending in Missouri's 1st District totals $4,667,636 for Democratic candidates. Opposition spending outpaces support spending by more than three to one.

The United Democracy Project (UDP) spent $3,120,774, according to the aggregate of 26 records tied to the group. New Democrat Majority's total is $1,075,000, according to the aggregate record. Project 218 spent $250,000, the Center Forward Committee spent $94,358, and the Working Families Party PAC spent $63,979.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate the race "Solid Democratic," as of Sept. 25, Sept. 29, and Sept. 17, respectively. Kalshi's prediction market, as of Oct. 2, gives Democrats a 94.6 percent chance of winning the seat and Republicans a 5.4 percent chance.

The district has voted Democratic in each of the past two cycles: a Democrat won with about 73 percent in 2022 and Bell won with about 76 percent in 2024. An aggregation of winner-party records returned seven Republican and two Democratic entries, though the analysis cautioned that it could not confirm those counts cover every statewide federal congressional race. Republican Donald Trump carried Missouri in the 2024 presidential election with about 58 percent of the vote.

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