Who's In the Race

Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon (D-PA) faces Republican Nicholas Manganaro in the November 3 general election in Pennsylvania's 5th District. ​

Scanlon has represented the district since November 2018, after a career as an education attorney and president of her local school board. She ran unopposed in the May 19 Democratic primary. Manganaro comes from a financial-industry background, holding degrees in mathematics from Reed College and finance from MIT. He also ran unopposed in the May 19 Republican primary.

What They Stand For

Scanlon has supported protecting the Affordable Care Act and lowering prescription-drug costs, according to her official House website, where she says, "Every American deserves access to quality, affordable healthcare." She's also supported:

  • Expanding early-childhood education, fairly funding schools, and making post-secondary education more affordable,
  • Stronger gun-safety laws, including closing loopholes, improving background checks, and banning assault rifles,
  • Reducing carbon emissions and affordable renewable energy, saying climate change "deserves a serious response"; and
  • Protecting the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act.

Manganaro has proposed a credible path to balance the federal budget, with stronger oversight to close fraud loopholes and cost-benefit analyses of legislation, according to the Delaware County Republican Party candidate page. He's also supported:

  • Addressing the cost of living and opposing increases in local and state taxes,
  • Removing criminals from the country and continuing Immigration and Customs Enforcement efforts against fentanyl trafficking; and
  • A Pennsylvania "all-of-the-above energy policy," using domestic oil in the near term and developing next-generation nuclear power.

The Money Behind the Race

Through June 30, Mary Gay Scanlon had raised about $991,000 and had about $449,000 in cash on hand, while Nicholas Manganaro had raised about $9,300 and had about $5,900 on hand, a fundraising gap of more than 100-to-1. Scanlon's cash on hand alone exceeds Manganaro's total receipts by more than 48 to 1. Manganaro also carries about $5,400 in debt against that cash, leaving him a net financial position of roughly $505.

Outside groups have spent about $105 supporting Scanlon, with API PA VOTES the largest spender at about $95; no outside money has been spent against her, and no independent expenditures have supported Manganaro.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

All three major race-rating services call this contest solidly in Scanlon's favor. Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Scanlon, a 97.24% chance of winning as of Oct. 15, with Republicans, whose nominee is Manganaro, at 2.76%.

The district's own history reinforces that picture. Scanlon won the 2022 race with about 65 percent of the vote and the 2024 race with about 65 percent as well, and her vote share rose only 0.2 percentage points. Statewide, Pennsylvania's U.S. House delegation shifted from a 9-8 Democratic advantage in 2022 to a 10-7 Republican advantage in 2024, though that swing did not reach the 5th District. In the 2024 presidential race, Republican Donald J. Trump carried Pennsylvania with about 50 percent of the vote.

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