What Happened?

If you collect or expect to collect Social Security retirement benefits, the trust fund that pays them is projected to run out of reserves in 2032. According to a Legis1 review of the 2026 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, the trustees project two dates: ​

  • Retirement fund: The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays retirement and survivor benefits, would exhaust its reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032. Without congressional action, incoming payroll tax revenue and other income would cover just 78% of scheduled benefits.
  • Combined funds: The retirement and disability funds together would exhaust their reserves in 2034, when 83% of scheduled benefits would remain payable.

The Senate Budget Committee will examine the projections at a hearing on Wednesday, Nov. 18. The committee titled the hearing "Social Security: The Reality." Scheduled witnesses are economist Veronique de Rugy of George Mason University's Mercatus Center, Jason Fichtner of the LIMRA Retirement Income Institute, and labor economist Kathryn Anne Edwards of the National Academy of Social Insurance.

Why Does it Matter to Me?

Workers pay Social Security payroll taxes only on earnings up to the annual taxable maximum. The limit is $184,500 and is scheduled to rise to $192,300 in 2027. MarketWatch reported Nov. 7 on a debate over requiring higher earners to pay Social Security taxes on more of their income. Raising or eliminating the taxable maximum is one proposal for bringing more revenue into the program. If you earn above the limit, that proposal could increase the Social Security taxes you owe.

Both Sides, Now

Opponents of cutting scheduled benefits argue that reductions would worsen hardship for older adults and that sustaining or increasing benefits is preferable. USA Today reported Sept. 15 that the Census Bureau's Supplemental Poverty Measure rate for people 65 and older was 15.4% in 2025, up from 9.4% in 2020. The Census Bureau said in 2025 that Social Security lifted 28.7 million people out of poverty under that measure.

Lobbying filings show the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare reporting $1.02 million in lobbying expenditures and identifying budget resolutions and fiscal commissions that could lead to benefit cuts. Social Security Works reported $80,000 in lobbying expenditures and supports the Social Security Expansion Act.

Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) is the committee's ranking member, and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) chairs it. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), who is not on the committee, called for legislation on Oct. 14 to strengthen benefits. Congress writes Social Security law, and the hearing will not produce legislation on its own.

What Happens Next?

After the three witnesses testify at the Nov. 18 hearing, any change to benefits or taxes would require legislation passed by Congress and signed into law, or enacted over a presidential veto.

Separately, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announced Oct. 14 a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, affecting about 76 million Americans who receive Social Security or Supplemental Security Income. The average retirement benefit will rise by about $75 per month beginning in January.

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AllCiv makes it easy to stay politically informed and involved.

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