Tennessee's 7th District Primary

Two primaries on Aug. 6 will determine which Republican and Democrat face off in November for Tennessee's 7th Congressional District seat, a race where outside groups have already spent more than $7 million before a single primary vote is cast.

Republican incumbent Matt Van Epps faces two challengers in his party's primary. Democrats choose from a four-candidate field. Whoever wins each primary advances directly to the Nov. 3 general election under Tennessee's partisan primary system, in which each party holds its own separate contest and the winners meet in November.

Democrats, Republicans, and independents are all represented among the 12 candidates slated for November. No runoff mechanism applies; a plurality wins each primary.

Prior election results for this seat were not available in the source data, but every major forecaster rates the district solidly in Republican hands, and prediction markets put the GOP's odds of holding the seat above 90%.

The Candidates

Republican primary

Van Epps, the incumbent, seeks to hold the seat he currently occupies. He faces two Republican challengers: Jay Reedy and Brant Hall.

Democratic primary

Four Democrats are competing for the nomination. Aftyn Behn has attracted the most outside spending attention of any Democrat in the race, drawing nearly $2.85 million in independent expenditures, though the majority of that money runs against her rather than in her support. Vincent Dixie is the only other Democrat with notable outside spending, receiving $100,000 entirely in support. Darden Copeland and Joshua Warren Sales round out the Democratic field. Saletta Holloway also appears on the Democratic primary ballot.

The Money Behind the Race

Outside groups have directed $7,126,409 in independent expenditures into the Tennessee 7th District primary race, with spending data current through July 1, as reported Aug. 3.

MAGA Inc. leads all outside spenders at $1,690,361. Conservatives for American Excellence Inc. ranks second at $1,063,831, followed by HMP at $930,876. Your Community PAC spent $798,480, and Club for Growth Action reported $472,591. The next five largest spenders: American Liberty Foundation ($383,777), American Patriots PAC ($329,827), Patriotic Fund, Inc. ($198,837), The Equity Alliance Fund Action PAC ($168,395), and Tennessee Rise PAC ($146,630).

Van Epps drew the most outside attention of any candidate in the race. The $4,124,758 directed at his candidacy breaks down as $2,460,784 in support and $1,663,974 in opposition, meaning roughly 40% of the outside spending touching his race works against him, a split that reflects a contested Republican primary.

Behn drew $2,840,993 in outside spending, but the money runs heavily against her: $1,919,805 in opposition versus $921,188 in support. Dixie received $100,000, all of it in support. A separate FEC filing lists a Matthew Robert Van Epps under an independent party designation, with $60,478 in outside spending: $28,157 in support and $32,321 in opposition. Former Rep. Mark Green had $181 in support spending recorded.

Ratings vs. Odds

Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rate Tennessee's 7th Congressional District as Solid Republican. Cook's rating is current as of July 16; Sabato's as of July 30; Inside Elections' as of June 30. The consensus rating, aggregated as of July 30, is Solid Republican across all three.

On Kalshi, the Republican nominee carries a 93% probability of winning in November, with the Democratic nominee at 7%. That market had traded 857 contracts as of Aug. 3.

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