Who's In the Race

Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX) faces Republican Adam Bauman in the Nov. 3 general election in Texas's 16th Congressional District. Escobar has represented Texas's 16th District in the U.S. House since January 2019, after serving as an El Paso County commissioner and then county judge. She ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. ​

Bauman is a retired U.S. Border Patrol agent and Navy veteran who operates Bauman Tactical Canine, a canine drug-detection business. He won the Republican primary runoff on May 26 with about 69 percent of the vote over Manuel Barraza.

What They Stand For

Escobar has supported universal background checks and a ban on assault weapons, according to her official House website. She has also supported:

  • highlighting El Paso County's high uninsured rate and saying "healthcare is a right every American should enjoy,"
  • Opposing tax cuts that benefit the ultra-wealthy at the expense of healthcare, education and other essential programs,
  • Immigration legislation including the Access to Counsel Act and measures addressing immigration detention and enforcement; and
  • The Climate Action Plan Act, which draws on the framework developed by her Climate Crisis Advisory Committee.

Bauman says he is committed to supporting the Customs and Border Protection mission "to protect our border and keep El Paso safe," according to his campaign website. He also says he wants to:

  • Put El Paso first
  • Honor veterans through care and support

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Democratic as of Oct. 9; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 11; and Inside Elections rated it Solid Democratic as of Oct. 2. Kalshi traders gave Democrats, whose nominee is Escobar, a 96.85 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13.

Escobar carried the district with about 60 percent of the vote in 2024 and about 63 percent in 2022. Statewide, Republicans won 25 of Texas's 38 U.S. House seats and Democrats won 13 in both 2022 and 2024. Donald Trump carried Texas in the 2024 presidential election with about 56 percent of the vote.

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