Who's In the Race

Incumbent Republican Beth Van Duyne and Democrat Kevin Burge advanced from primaries in Texas and will meet in the November election for the 24th U.S. House District.

Van Duyne ran uncontested in the Republican primary, walking away with 71,506 votes.

Burge advanced from the May 26 Democratic runoff with 10,626 votes, or 78.1 percent of the vote. He reached the runoff after a March 3 Democratic primary that drew 60,354 total votes. In that first Democratic primary, Burge received 28,968 votes, ahead of TJ Ware with 15,774 votes and Jon Buchwald with 15,612 votes. Burge then faced Ware again in the runoff, where Ware received 2,979 votes, or 21.9 percent.

What They Stand For

Van Duyne is running as the incumbent representative for Texas’s 24th Congressional District. Her campaign identifies the southern border crisis as a major concern for the country. Her campaign page also lists stopping drug cartels and human trafficking at the border among its priorities, including closing legal loopholes, according to Beth for Texas.

Her campaign frames opposition to socialism as a central reason for her candidacy and describes protecting the American Dream as a goal, according to Beth for Texas. Her campaign cites threats from hostile nations, cyberattacks, nuclear weapons, and terrorism as issues facing the country.

Burge's campaign lists affordable housing as one of its top priorities, according to Kevin Burge for Congress. He supports Medicare for All as its approach to universal health care and immigration reform.

His campaign lists protecting civil liberties and restoring checks and balances among its priorities, as well as tuition-free public college and trade education. His campaign also lists restoring abortion rights as a priority.

The Money Behind the Race

Race-specific outside spending totaled $53,710, and all of that total was counted toward the Republican side. The support-versus-opposition aggregation also totaled $53,710 in support, tied to Republican incumbent Beth Van Duyne. The committee leaderboard names Texas Alliance for Life Fed PAC with $53,710, making it the only independent expenditure committee active in this race in the provided aggregation. The race record through September 29 also reports $53,710 in total outside spending, all listed as support for Van Duyne and none listed as opposition.

The periodic-report coverage window closed September 21, while notices through September 29 are included in the support total but have not yet been restated in a periodic report. The party aggregation reflects filings through September 21, and notes that additional 24-hour and 48-hour notices may exist through September 29. The race record lists notices through September 29 and coverage through September 21.

The committee leaderboard reports committee names and totals only, while direction of spending is tracked separately. In this race, all $53,710 was described as supporting the Republican candidate. No oppose spending total was provided in the support-versus-opposition aggregation beyond the support figure, so opposition spending is unavailable in that aggregation rather than proven to be zero. The party aggregation provided only a Republican total, so no Democratic total was available in that aggregation.

The race record’s supporting context also lists Texas Alliance for Life Fed PAC as the top spender, with its spending listed as support for Van Duyne. That supporting context should not be added to the aggregation totals because it describes the same spending from a different reporting cut. The underlying party aggregation counted five records for the Republican grouping. The underlying support aggregation counted five records for support. The underlying committee aggregation counted five records for Texas Alliance for Life Fed PAC.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

Three major handicappers rate the race Solid Republican, with a consensus rating of Solid Republican as of September 28. The Cook Political Report rated the race Solid Republican as of September 25. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the race Solid Republican as of September 22. Inside Elections rated the race Solid Republican as of September 17.

The Kalshi prediction market gave Republicans an 89.11 percent probability and Democrats a 10.89 percent probability as of September 29, with a volume of 23,155. Those odds are prediction-market probabilities as of that date from the market named Kalshi, and they are neither polling nor a forecast produced by this publication.

Texas leans red in federal congressional races, based on winners from the 2022 and 2024 cycles. In 2024, Republicans won 20 of 27 House races and the Senate race, for 21 of 28 total, while Democrats won seven of 27 House races. In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump won Texas with 56.14 percent of the vote.

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