Who's In the Race

Rep. John J. McGuire III (R-VA) faces Democrat Tom Perriello and independent Cooke Costa Harvey in the Nov. 3 general election in Virginia's 5th District. Virginia's 2026 congressional elections use the standing 2021 district map after a proposed replacement was overturned by the state Supreme Court. ​

McGuire is serving his first term in the House and sits on the House Armed Services Committee and the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability. Perriello previously represented Virginia's 5th District from 2009 to 2011 and later served as U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan. Perriello won the Democratic primary with about 80 percent of the vote over runner-up Suzanne Krzyzanowski. McGuire won the Republican primary over Melanie Lucero; no vote share was reported for that contest.

What They Stand For

McGuire has described his work as focused on "family costs, national security, and limiting government reach," according to a VPM candidate survey. He has also supported:

  • Service on the House Armed Services Committee,
  • Service on the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability; and
  • limiting government reach.

Perriello has proposed ending tariffs that he says have raised grocery bills, according to his campaign website. He has also supported:

  • Working to end what he calls the Iran war, which he says has driven up gas and fertilizer costs,
  • Congressional authority over tariffs, according to the Virginia Mercury,
  • Healthcare affordability and reform, according to The Hoya; and
  • Lowering costs as his stated urgent priority.

The Money Behind the Race

Tom Perriello raised about $2.1 million through July 15, and he had about $1.5 million in cash on hand. McGuire raised about $1.8 million through the same date and had about $524,000 in the bank. He carried about $41,000 in debt.

As of Oct. 13, outside groups have spent about $2.3 million in Virginia's 5th District race, and Activate America has reported $453 supporting Democrat Tom Perriello.

Race Outlook: Ratings and Betting Markets

The Cook Political Report rated the race "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 9. Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it "Lean Republican" as of Oct. 11. Inside Elections also rated it "Likely Republican" as of Oct. 2.

On Kalshi, traders gave Republicans, whose nominee is McGuire, a 76.24 percent chance of winning as of Oct. 13; Democrats, whose nominee is Perriello, stood at 23.76 percent.

The Republican Bob Good won the district with about 58 percent of the vote in 2022, and McGuire carried it with about 57 percent in 2024. Democrats won six of Virginia's 11 U.S. House seats in 2022, and Republicans won five. Democrat Kamala D. Harris carried Virginia in the 2024 presidential election with about 52 percent of the vote.

Virginia voters must register by Friday, Oct. 23, to participate; same-day registration with a provisional ballot is available from Saturday, Oct. 24, through Election Day. The deadline to apply for a mail ballot is Friday, Oct. 23, at 5 p.m. Early voting runs from Friday, Sept. 18, through Saturday, Oct. 31. On Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3, polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.

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