The Race

Rep. Marilyn Strickland (D-WA) is running for a fourth term in Washington's 10th U.S. House District, and six candidates filed for the top-two primary on Tuesday, Aug. 4. Three of them are Democrats: Strickland, Adam Arafat and Alex Scheel. Opposing the Democrats are Republican Chris Chung, Derek Maynes running with no party preference, and Kurtis Engle of the Union Party. Under Washington's system, party labels don't matter to the ballot math, so the two highest finishers advance to the Tuesday, Nov. 3, general election regardless of party affiliation.

Ratings

As of the July ratings updates, Washington's 10th sits in the Solid Democratic column at Cook and Inside Elections, and its Safe Democratic equivalent at Sabato's. The district gives Strickland a lot of cushion to work with. Anchored in Olympia and stretching through parts of Thurston and Pierce counties, it carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+9. In 2024, she defeated Republican Don Hewett 58.7% to 41.3% out of 347,224 votes cast.

Prediction Markets

On Polymarket as of Monday, July 27, at 4:30 p.m. ET, the price is a Democratic hold at 94% and a Republican pickup at 7%, on roughly $17,624 in total volume. Those two figures sum past 100% on purpose. They're the most recent trade prices on each side, carrying the spread and fees that come with a thin market, not a tidy probability split.

Kalshi's active contract is asking a narrower question, which is who survives Aug. 4. Traders there put Strickland at 98% to advance and Chung at 95%, with Scheel a distant 2%.

Experts vs. Markets

The general election contract is close to settled, and the primary contract is barely less so: at 98% to advance, Strickland isn't being priced as a candidate with a real nomination fight on her hands. The competitive question in Washington's 10th this summer isn't which party holds the seat in November. It's whether the August ballot produces anything the November one hasn't already priced in.

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